<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">In this week&rsquo;s issue, we address the threat of lifting food subsidies on millions of lives and the urgency of social protection programs to end child labor</p>
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(6, 71, 137);"><strong>Cash or Bread? Both Until We Fix Policy</strong></span></h2>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The Prime Minister&rsquo;s Office spokesman <a href="https://www.elbalad.news/6215120">said</a> the government is considering replacing food subsidies with monthly cash payments. The Egyptian social protection system already <a href="https://idsc.gov.eg/upload/7%20years/sector/13%20%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B9%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%86%20%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9.pdf">combines</a> in-kind subsidies and cash transfers. Still, fundamental problems in the operation of the subsidy system make a rapid and exclusive shift to cash transfers a threat to the food security of the poor and middle classes. The government should maintain in-kind subsidies and consider introducing a Universal Basic Income (UBI) as the real solution to poverty in Egypt.</p>
<p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1717953597imageEd 74 [Recovered]_2-2 EN.png" alt="" width="405" height="203"></p>
<h3 dir="ltr"><strong>Targeted assistance excludes many in need</strong></h3>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">The state <a href="https://egy-map.com/initiative/%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%81%D9%84-%D9%88%D9%83%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A9#:~:text=%D9%87%D9%88%20%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AC%20%D9%84%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B7%D8%A9,%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%84%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%A6%D8%A7%D8%AA%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%8A%20%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B3%20%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%87%D8%A7">provides</a> cash subsidies through a monthly pension under the Takaful and Karama program, which targets families living in extreme poverty and deprived of basic needs. While it may have helped a tiny percentage of those experiencing poverty and contributed to a <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/events/110/open-panel-discussion-at-aps-on-poverty-figures-in-egypt-an-inflation-driven-increase">slight decline</a> in the anticipated poverty rate, it remains deficient.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Under the Takaful and Karama program, households <a href="https://www.moss.gov.eg/ar-eg/Pages/news-details.aspx?nid=3020">receive</a> EGP 620&ndash;740 every month. Based on the <a href="https://www.capmas.gov.eg/Pages/StaticPages.aspx?page_id=7183">extreme poverty line</a> set by the government five years ago at EGP550 per capita, at least EGP 2200 per household <a href="https://www.alhurra.com/egypt/2024/06/01/%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%B9%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D8%B3%D9%8A%D8%A4%D8%AB%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%9F">is needed</a> to keep families afloat. Even this increase would barely keep pace with the steep inflation in <a href="https://www.capmas.gov.eg/Pages/IndicatorsPage.aspx?page_id=6130&amp;ind_id=2542">food and beverage prices</a>, which saw a year-on-year increase of 73.6% in September 2023, if it continues.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;"><a href="https://www.capmas.gov.eg/Pages/StaticPages.aspx?page_id=7183">Not all citizens</a> below the poverty line are beneficiaries of the Takaful program, and problems persist with the lack of funds and eligibility <a href="https://documents.aucegypt.edu/Docs/GAPP/Public%20Policy%20Hub%20Webpage/15-%20Community%20Monitoring%20and%20Evaluation-%20A%20Case%20Study%20of%20Takaful%20and%20Karama-%20En.pdf">targeting</a>.</p>
<p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1717953713imageEd 74 [Recovered]_1 EN.png" alt="" width="405" height="404"></p>
<h3 dir="ltr"><strong>Subsidized bread keeps hunger at bay</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: justify;">The government&rsquo;s limited cash transfer programs <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/articles/731/bread-subsidies-a-necessity-created-by-developmental-failure">have not raised</a> the standard of living of targeted families or improved the social safety net in general, as the current economic crisis has increased the population&rsquo;s dependence on subsidized bread. Contrary to official statements, bread subsidies <a href="https://mof.gov.eg/ar/posts/stateGeneralBudget/63a95e67da80a50008d14783/%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%A9%20%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A9%202023%2024">are not costly</a> for the government.</p>
<p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1717953796imageEd 74 [Recovered]_3-3 EN.png" alt="" width="405" height="405"></p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Food subsidies prevent the expansion of poverty and hunger, especially since a loaf of bread is the primary source of the required caloric intake among Egyptians. A large slice of the population <a href="https://www.capmas.gov.eg/Pages/Publications.aspx?page_id=5109&amp;YearID=23629">depends</a> on subsidized bread, including those on the brink of poverty and parts of the <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jae/article/33/2/109/7146189">middle class</a>. These population groups <a href="https://academic.oup.com/jae/article/33/2/109/7146189">are harmed</a> the most by lifting in-kind subsidies because they are heavily dependent on them and are not eligible for cash assistance under the current programs.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr"><strong>More than just a loaf of bread&nbsp;</strong></h3>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">The state <a href="https://idsc.gov.eg/upload/7%20years/sector/13%20%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B9%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%86%20%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A9%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9.pdf">amended</a> its bread subsidy policy by introducing a points system in 2014/15. This reform allows consumers to exchange their unused bread quota for points they can use to purchase other goods, thus diversifying their food intake.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">However, the nutritious value of the subsidized bread is not only in the <a href="https://egyptssp.ifpri.info/2018/02/26/%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%A9/">calories</a> it provides to citizens. The government has <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/23444707/">used</a> the subsidized bread millions of Egyptians consumed to treat micronutrient deficiencies by enriching it with iron and folic acid to combat anemia.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr"><strong>A basic income for everyone to end poverty</strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: justify;">If the government seeks a solution to poverty, it should not recklessly eliminate food subsidies. This move would disadvantage tens of millions of people in favor of limited cash subsidy programs that do not address the structural roots of the crisis or provide enough coverage for those in need of social protection. Given current economic conditions, the government must expand&mdash;not lift&mdash;in-kind subsidies to include other food items to <a href="https://egyptssp.ifpri.info/2018/02/26/%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B8%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D8%B9%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%85%D9%88%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A%D8%A9/">improve</a> nutrition among the population.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">The government should consider a Universal Basic Income <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/ar/articles/696/background-paper-universal-basic-income-are-we-heading-towards-a-new-social-contract">(UBI)</a>, a system that provides monthly assistance to every citizen to meet their needs. It should be coupled with tax reforms to ensure that high-income brackets contribute enough to expand the funding pool for UBI. The <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/ar/articles/696/background-paper-universal-basic-income-are-we-heading-towards-a-new-social-contract">cost of the UBI</a> is nearly the same as current budget expenditures on subsidies, which reflects the feasibility of its implementation.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Given the <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/articles/133/universal-basic-income-an-alternative-policy-solution-for-egypt">decline in wages</a> in the sectors that employ most of the Egyptian workforce, including agriculture, simple trades, smallholder farmers, and seasonal workers, the government must seriously consider UBI as it provides a comprehensive and sustainable solution to poverty.</p>
<hr>
<h2 dir="ltr"><span style="color: rgb(6, 71, 137);"><strong>Social Protection to Save Children from Work</strong></span></h2>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Sixteen girls <a href="https://www.youm7.com/story/2024/5/22/%D8%AA%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%8A%D9%84-%D9%85%D8%AB%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A9-%D8%A8%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%8A%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AD%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%AB-%D8%BA%D8%B1%D9%82-%D9%85%D9%8A%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B5-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A3%D8%A8%D9%88-%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A6%D9%88%D9%84/6584909">drowned</a> after a microbus fell off a Nile ferry that was carrying 25 children to work in a vineyard in Giza. Accidents involving children on their way to work are an all too <a href="https://zawia3.com/%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%B7%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%B7%D9%81%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B3%D9%84%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A9-%D9%88%D8%AD%D9%88%D8%A7/">frequent</a> occurrence, reflecting not only the poor state of the transportation system but also the tragedy of child labor in Egypt. In addition to the harm it does to children&rsquo;s well-being, child labor also hinders economic development. Since child labor is common among families living in extreme poverty, maintaining social protection programs is crucial for combating the exploitation of children.</p>
<p dir="ltr"><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1717954011imageEd 74 [Recovered]_5-5 EN.png" alt="" width="405" height="203"></p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Around <a href="https://censusinfo.capmas.gov.eg/Metadata-en-v4.2/index.php/catalog/665">4.9%</a> of all children work, according to the 2021 Egyptian Family Health Survey. This figure does not include children employed in the drug trade, forced begging, and commercial sexual exploitation. Working children range in age from 5 to 17, and about 467,825 are aged 5&ndash;11.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Children work for low wages in conditions that are hazardous to their health and safety. <a href="https://censusinfo.capmas.gov.eg/Metadata-en-v4.2/index.php/catalog/665">They may </a>carry heavy loads, work with dangerous tools, be exposed to toxic chemicals, and inhale dust and fumes. They often labor in extreme heat and for long hours of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3295wEpmajo">night</a> and day. In 2017, 29.8% of all working children <a href="https://www.fdhrd.org/fdhrd-issues-a-report-on-the-phenomenon-of-child-labour-in-egypt/">worked more</a> than six hours per day, or more than 43 hours a week.</p>
<h3 dir="ltr"><strong>A trinity that robs childhoods: Poverty, school attrition, work</strong></h3>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Child labor rates in rural areas <a href="https://www.unicef.org/egypt/media/10761/file/Child#:~:text=The%20latest%20national%20estimates%20from,exposed%20to%20hazardous%20work%20environments.">are twice as high</a> as in cities, especially in the country's most impoverished region of Upper Egypt. Working at a young age <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6459361/#:~:text=Child%20labor%20was%20found%20to,disorders%2C%20and%20decreased%20coping%20efficacy.">obstructs</a> children&rsquo;s mental and physical development.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Low-wage child labor <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_74-1.pdf">reinforces</a> the cycle of poverty and negatively affects economic development. Each additional year of schooling <a href="https://www.r4d.org/wp-content/uploads/Exclusion-from-Education-Final-Report.pdf">increases</a> an individual&rsquo;s income by 26% and per capita GDP by 30%. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Manzoor-Ahmed-19/publication/330999537_Child_Labor_and_Learning_Achievements_The_Impact_of_Children's_Work_on_School_Performance/links/5c60547e92851c48a9c931ba/Child-Labor-and-Learning-Achievements-The-Impact-of-Childrens-Work-on-School-Performance.pdf">Children who miss</a> five days of school at the age of 10 are more likely not to obtain educational credentials and drop out of the workforce at a rate 4.2% higher than other children.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Child labor acts to <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/978-3-319-57365-6_74-1.pdf">depress</a> wages in general and leads to an increase in unskilled labor. <a href="https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000218003">Low levels of education</a> also have adverse impacts on the economy.</p>
<p><img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1717954238imageEd 74 [Recovered]_6 EN.png" alt="" width="405" height="405"></p>
<h3 dir="ltr"><strong>Education and social protection break poverty cycle</strong></h3>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">The <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/articles/1318/education-for-some-implications-of-government-spending-for-access-to-education">decline</a> in government spending on public services, especially education, and the ineffectiveness of programs targeting impoverished families, such as the Takaful program, are critical obstacles to combatting child labor.</p>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">The Takaful and Karama program provides small, conditional cash transfers to motivate families experiencing extreme poverty to send their children to school. Still, it <a href="https://www.undp.org/ar/egypt/publications/tqryr-altnmyt-albshryt-fy-msr-2021?cq_ck=1630334436224">sets a maximum</a> of two children per family. Given the high birth rates among the poorest families, this is a <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/articles/463/more-than-numbers">punitive</a> policy that acts to push children into the labor market.</p>
<p style="text-align: justify;">Instead of abandoning the provision of public services, the state should make structural <a href="https://www.cocoainitiative.org/sites/default/files/resources/ICI_2022_How%20does%20child%20work%20affect%20education%20and%20health.pdf">investments</a> in <a href="https://journals.ekb.eg/article_100078_08b29a2a45f5f362c155a1669d99e439.pdf">free public education</a> and address the <a href="https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/resources/reports/child-labor/egypt">barriers</a> that lead to children dropping out of school, such as <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/articles/527/policy-brief-school-construction-in-egypt-quality-education-begins-with-school-infrastructure">overcrowding</a> and the cost of school supplies, transportation, and clothing. Finally, expanding government social protection programs beyond limited cash transfers to reduce poverty is imperative.</p>
<hr>
<p dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;"><em><a href="https://aucegypt.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=5e42bef7fee7e6a299c3d932d&amp;id=e0d95df1c1&amp;mibextid=Zxz2cZ">Subscribe to the weekly edition&nbsp;</a></em></p>
<div style="text-align: justify;"><em>"Adasa" is a weekly policy digest by Alternative Policy Solutions. </em><em>"Adasa" provides an analysis of a select number of policy developments and their effect on inclusive development and socioeconomic change.</em></div>

عدسة

Adasa

حماية اجتماعية

Social Protection

الفقر

Poverty

الغذاء والتغذية

Food and Nutrition

العمالة غير الرسمية والمؤقتة

Informal and Temporary Employment

السياسات الاقتصادية

Economic Policies

جودة التشغيل

Quality of Employment

الحماية الاجتماعية يغذيها الخبز المدعوم وتنقذ الأطفال من العمل

Food Subsidies to Keep Hunger at Bay and Social Protection to Stop Child Labor	

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