<h3 dir="ltr">Introduction&nbsp;</h3>
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is one of the most promising policy initiatives launched by the African Union (AU) under the Agenda 2063 framework. Agenda 2063 is the strategy framework established by the AU to guide the African continent's socio-economic transformation over the coming 50 years. Its main objective is to foster a prosperous, integrated, and peaceful Africa, propelled by its population, and exert a dynamic influence on the global platform. The AfCFTA, which falls under the 2063 Agenda,&nbsp; intends to create a single, continent-wide market for products and services, allowing for the free movement of people, businesses, and investments. AfCFTA aims to boost intra-African trade, industrialize the continents&rsquo; resources, and support long-term economic development by lowering tariffs and other barriers.
For decades, African nations have suffered regular economic crises and significant foreign exchange losses under the colonial development model. Although Africa makes up 17% of the world's population, its global trade share dropped from 5% post-independence to less than 3% in 2020. African intra-regional trade is limited at about 15%, while the continent&rsquo;s trade comes up to 60% with Asia and 70% with Europe. By establishing a vast free trade area in which 1.4 billion people live and have a combined GDP of USD 3.4 trillion, the AfCFTA seeks to reverse the lack of cooperation among African countries and levitate the continent&rsquo;s economic well-being. It aims to boost investment in labor-intensive industries and strengthen trade and financial stability (Fofack, 2024).
We can not ignore the significance of the AfCFTA, which was ratified by 47 out of 54 African nations (Erasmus, 2024). The agreement promises to unlock Africa's economic potential by fostering economies of scale, facilitating regional value chains, and attracting the capital required for industrial change. Furthermore, it intends to improve socioeconomic growth, gender equality, and food security and increase African economies' global competitiveness. AfCFTA's success is critical to achieving the AU's aim of "an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa." However, the constant political changes across the 54 African countries and the governance transitions post-coups in the Sahel area can jeopardize the successful implementation of AfCFTA (Chowdhry et. al, 2023); however, they could also jumpstart change.
While upheavals in African countries can lead to disruptions in governance, trade, and investment, these challenges also present opportunities for profound and transformative change. Implementing innovative economic policies, the empowerment of civil society, or a transition towards more inclusive governance are all potential manifestations of this change. Nevertheless, governing entities must offer robust and consistent support to realize these potential advantages. This encompasses establishing stable environments for dialogue, promoting cooperation among stakeholders, and implementing policies that optimize the opportunities for positive change while minimizing the harmful effects of disruptions. Consequently, effective governance can transform short-term crises into long-term opportunities for growth and development throughout the continent
<h3 dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Sahel decolonization plan</h3>
Since 2020, there has been a notable emergence of coups and military alliances across 6 African countries, notably Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, among others. The 3 countries have similar political and economic goals, which pushed them to create the Alliance of Sahel States (AES, or Alliance des &Eacute;tats du Sahel in French). Initiated as a mutual defense agreement, these countries founded this confederation on September 16, 2023, formally bringing it into being on July 6, 2024. This alliance has garnered international attention for its strong stance against Western influence, particularly the French systems.
The prominence of AES on the global stage can be attributed to its vocal opposition to what it perceives as ideological and economic colonization by France. These countries have a history of adhering to the CFA franc, a currency tied to the French treasury, which has been a point of contention due to concerns about economic sovereignty and the lack of taxation on French companies operating within these nations.
The 3 Sahel states are vocal about their attempt to draw new members whose political beliefs fit their alliance&rsquo;s development goals. This is particularly the case given their anti-Western and anti-French sentiments, which have resonated with many in the region who feel they are still under the influence of their former colonial power. By taking a stand against these perceived forms of colonization, the Alliance of Sahel States has positioned itself as a significant player in the ongoing discussions about economic independence and sovereignty in Africa.&nbsp;
The AES's anti-Western sentiment is being actively upheld and reinforced by the member countries through their actions and policies. The fundamental plan of the AES lists numerous strategic directions, including building a regional bank and a stabilization fund. It has also created an executive order promoting African-led foreign investment inside their borders. Viewed by thousands and extensively shared on social media, this plan has generated fresh discussions. Critics contend that conservative policies and bureaucracy defined past political regimes, while advocates view this action as a first step towards more successfully addressing the development requirements of the region.
<h3 dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Unconventional alliances and post-coup adjustments</h3>
Given the political implications in the continent, the AU finds itself at a crossroads, where economic goals must navigate the turbulent waters of the post-coup governmental adjustments. Against this backdrop, unconventional regional alliances emerge as both a beacon of hope and a source of pressure, challenging the AU to harmonize its economic policies with the realities on the ground. This intricate dance of politics and economics will ultimately shape the future of AfCFTA and the continent's role in the global economy. Below is a brief analysis of how some global and regional factors can facilitate the integration of AES as part of the AfCFTA:
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Political experts worry that threats of force and possible travel restrictions on vital African nations might delay the implementation of AfCFTA. Despite the standard analysis, the AU should revise its strategy toward such regional alliances. The recent support from Senegal's newly-elected government, led by President Faye, for the AES, points towards a potential path for increased regional collaboration and easing the controversial sanctions imposed by ECOWAS. This endorsement could stimulate cooperation among neighboring countries, promoting regional stability, economic diversification, and collective bargaining power. Given that scenario, the AU can then advance intra-African trade, strengthen political ties, and ensure the effective implementation of AfCFTA.
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The Sahel region critically depends on leveraging economic interdependence and complementarity. With highly diverse natural resources and industrial promise; Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's economies typically complement one another. An economic union might boost development and help better use those long-exploited resources (Bassou, 2024). After all, the Sahel is one of the most resource-rich regions on the continent, and it has a large reserve of oil, gold, diamonds, copper, natural gas, wood, and biological diversity. Ignoring the possibilities of the Sahel State alliance would be a strategic mistake; this underscores the necessity of the efforts that should be taken to match its operations with those of other regional partners so that these resources are efficiently included in the larger African economy.
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Any economic sanctions imposed on these nations would lock up priceless resources inside their borders, effectively isolating them from world trade. This isolation would damage not only the Sahel economy but the North African region and the rest of the Sahara desert, disrupting trade flows across the continent, which leads to: lowering trade volumes, business collapses, and loss of local income (Ogunranti, 2023). Furthermore, higher transaction costs for small firms brought on by sanctions would go against the goals of the AfCFTA, which seeks to lower trade barriers, thereby fostering intra-African commerce and economic integration. Sanctions on the Sahel nations will compromise the objectives of AfCFTA and impede regional economic development and progress.
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The BRICS &ndash; the 5 leading emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa &ndash; support the AU's Agenda 2063 and want to help the continent thrive economically. BRICS countries have regularly highlighted security concerns, socio-political hazards, UN membership, and the need for a more prominent African voice in multilateral institutions (Jantjies et al., 2023). As a coalition, the BRICS is formally challenging the norm of&nbsp;international structures, similar to what the AES is trying to accomplish. Since their inaugural summit, the BRICS nations have demanded global economic reform to &ldquo;create conditions for a more just world order.&rdquo; Moreover, they have campaigned for reducing dependence on the US dollar and establishing a new global reserve currency that is more diverse, stable, and predictable. Despite the IMF's opposition, these efforts have culminated in forming the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA), which aim to foster more equitable and balanced global decision-making. The collaboration between BRICS and AfCFTA has the potential to shift power dynamics in the global trade system, challenging the US-centric financial system that has progressively contributed to global instability and systemic risk.
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Including new BRICS members&mdash;Egypt, Ethiopia, Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE&mdash;significantly enhances the potential for rapid AfCFTA implementation. With these economic powers joining BRICS, there is a stronger argument against dismissing or isolating the Alliance of Sahel States despite their origins in coup-driven governments. This expanded BRICS coalition amplifies geopolitical influence and reinforces economic and political ties with Africa, emphasizing the importance of unity among all African nations. As more diverse and influential economies collaborate through the BRICS-AfCFTA partnership, the collective effort to transform Africa from a commodity exporter into a value-added economy gains momentum, aligning with the objectives of Agenda 2063 to promote sustainable development and inclusive growth across the continent (Ndzendze, 2023).
<hr>
References
<ul>
<li dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Chowdhry, S., Ferracane, M. F., &amp; Ticku, R. (2023, March 27). Growing together: Policy considerations for the African Continental Free Trade Area. EUIdeas.&nbsp;<a href="https://euideas.eui.eu/2023/03/27/growing-together-policy-considerations-for-the-african-continental-free-trade-area/">https://euideas.eui.eu/2023/03/27/growing-together-policy-considerations-for-the-african-continental-free-trade-area/</a></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Fofack, H. (2024, February 23). The future of African trade in the AfCFTA era. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-future-of-african-trade-in-the-afcfta-era/</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Jantjies, D., Mamabolo, K., Mohamed, S., Mthimkhulu, S., Orlandi, N., Ntinzi, L., Sekatane, M., &amp; Sibeko, S. (2023). BRICS and Africa Partnership: Promotion and Acceleration of Regional Integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Parliamentary Budget Office.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Ndzendze, B. (2023, May 22). BRICS and the AfCFTA: Potential for Industrialisation and Inclusive Development. Institute for Global Dialogue. Retrieved from&nbsp;<a href="https://igd.org.za/2023/05/22/brics-and-the-afcfta-potential-for-industrialisation-and-inclusive-development/">https://igd.org.za/2023/05/22/brics-and-the-afcfta-potential-for-industrialisation-and-inclusive-development/</a></li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Trade Unions in AfCFTA. (n.d.). AfCFTA update: Current status and next steps. Retrieved July 27, 2024, from https://tradeunionsinafcfta.org/afcfta-update-current-status-and-next-steps/#:~:text=Fifty%2Dfour%20African%20Union%20(AU,%2C%20South%20Sudan%2C%20and%20Sudan.</li>
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