Throughout human history, pandemics and epidemics have triggered global efforts to improve the relationship between public health and the urban environment (Buzatu &amp; Pianta, 2020). Every health crisis has taught us two main lessons: (1) the importance of our &lsquo;responses&rsquo; during and following the crisis, and (2) our &lsquo;preparedness&rsquo; for related issues (i.e. sanitation issues, social disconnection, waste disposal, etc.) (Jainer &amp; Yadav, 2020). In the 19th and 20th centuries, epidemics such as the plague, cholera, typhoid and the Spanish flu significantly shaped urban design in many cities to aid disease control. In response to these epidemics, sewerage systems, wider streets, larger public open spaces, and other major urban landscapes have been introduced. But what about the COVID-19 pandemic?
How COVID-19 has reshaped Urban Mobility
Increasing attention is being paid to urban areas after the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic. Many countries have tried to stop the spread by enforcing quarantines which left more than billions of people under full or partial lockdown. This global health crisis has severely disrupted our social interactions, mental health, physical activity and mobility. The &lsquo;new normal&rsquo; and the necessary social distancing measures have reshaped the urban transport geography of many cities. These cities have come up with innovative interventions to urge people to walk or cycle and consider this a resilient way to keep people connected. Consequently, a growing number of cities have embraced non-motorized transport (NMT) as an integral part of urban transport plans, suddenly seen as more valuable than ever before. Since the start of the pandemic, more than 1,800 cities have adopted different NMT measures to keep people moving while maintaining physical and social distancing, including:
<ul>
<li>Installing temporary &lsquo;pop-up&rsquo; or permanent emergency cycle lanes and infrastructure</li>
<li>(e.g. <a href="https://www.smartcitiesworld.net/news/news/bogota-expands-bike-lanes-overnight-to-curb-coronavirus-spread-5127">Bogot&aacute;</a>&nbsp;in Latin America, France, Milan and Berlin in Europe) (Goetsch &amp; Quiros, 2020; Schwedhelm et al., 2020).</li>
<li>Protecting the right to cycle, providing bike provision, and encouraging it</li>
<li>(e.g. London introduced special guidance for new riders) (Ibrahim, 2020).</li>
<li>Creating complete streets and pedestrianizing roads</li>
</ul>
(e.g. Oakland, California nearly closed 10% of its streets to motorized traffic).&nbsp;
This shift towards active mobility has brought some visible changes to (1) the urban environment, where <a href="https://www.iqair.com/fr/blog/air-quality/report-impact-of-covid-19-on-global-air-quality-earth-day">local air pollution has dropped by up to 60% globally</a> and so has noise pollution caused by motorized traffic, (2) traffic congestion, which then rebounded sharply in many developed countries and European cities after commuters abandoned other transport modes in favor of driving their private cars (Figure 1), (3) public physical and mental health, and (4) bike-share ridership across the globe, in Philadelphia it has increased by more than 150% (Laker, 2020). In many parts of the world, maintaining some of the above-mentioned NMT measures remains extremely challenging. The absence of adequate NMT measures in many countries is often due to the lack of or poor infrastructure and service conditions for cyclists and pedestrians, or due to variations in socio-economic conditions (Goetsch &amp; Quiros, 2020). For most low-income households, commuting by NMT is not a choice but rather borne out of necessity.&nbsp;
Figure 1: Changes in driving direction by region compared to&nbsp;the baseline of baseline of 13 January 2020
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1652959407imagefigure 1.png" alt="" width="700" height="336"> &nbsp;Source: Medimorec et al., 2020
<h3>The impact of COVID-19 on Public Transport (PT)</h3>
Individual concerns to avoid public gatherings, travel banning, and massive restrictions on PT have severely impacted PT systems and people&rsquo;s mobility patterns. Worldwide, cities are experiencing less PT ridership (as highlighted in Figure (2) and Figure (3)) and lower occupancy rates after PT vehicles and shared mobility services were recognized as high-risk environments for COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, most of PT is informal and privately owned in developing countries, where it is a significant source of motorized transport and employment. For instance, in Alexandria, Egypt, the private mini-bus system, taxis, and auto-rickshaws (Tok-Tok) are the backbone of the transport system (with a daily ridership of more than a 1.5 million passengers) and offer more reliable service than the formal system (Alexandria SUP 2032, 2014). Consequently, public officials struggle to impose pandemic measures on these informal services. The imposed restrictions (suspend service or reduce occupancy) pose a threat to the income of informal transport operators and so have been mostly ignored (Bird et al., 2020).&nbsp;
Figure 2: Impacts of COVID-19 on trips to PT stations by income group (From mid-February to 1st of May 2020).
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1652959512imagefigure 2.png" alt="" width="500" height="289">
Source: Medimorec et al., 2020
Figure 3: Impacts of COVID-19 on trips to PT stations by region (From mid-February to 1st of May 2020)
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1652959610imageFigure 3.png" alt="" width="600" height="340">
&nbsp;Source: Medimorec et al., 2020
As a result, many drastic challenges have been reported in most of the affected cities during the lockdown phase and after the incremental lifting of imposed restrictions. To name a few, the following are major challenges (Bird et al., 2020; Valente, 2020; Wuennenberg, 2020):
<ol>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Social sustainability: commuters with access to private cars are enjoying quiet roads while poorer households depend on shared transit, which could have negative consequences on social stresses and division.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Public welfare: many service operators have completely shut down less viable routes while others are passing their costs onto consumers.</li>
<li>Shared mobility sector including car sharing, car-pooling and ride-hailing: service providers are suffering from economic losses from reduced travel demand, leading to increased financial pressure and the risks of the gig economy.</li>
<li>Economic development:</li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Economic development is directly associated with PT, and so is also affected by the loss of revenue and high financial burdens of PT agencies resulting from frequent cleaning and disinfection of vehicles.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Another challenge is that of the inequality which has arisen from the &lsquo;work-from-home scheme&rsquo;, as it requires specific knowledge and skills by the employees. This could add more strain to public budgets which rely intensively on tax revenue from commuters (Siripurapu, 2020). It also limits low-income households&rsquo; access to job opportunities, which could hurt long-term economic outcomes (on the personal and national level), urban productivity, and raise unemployment levels.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3>Transit-Oriented Development (TOD): The aftermath of the new reality</h3>
With the significant decrease of PT ridership, many questions have arisen concerning its viability in the future, including how to cope with the ongoing crisis while continuing to develop a Sustainable Urban Transport (SUT) system. There are several approaches to implement SUT and handle the variety of aforementioned challenges, one of which is the &lsquo;Transit-Oriented Development (TOD)&rsquo; approach.&nbsp;
The TOD approach calls for high-density mixed-use areas clustered around transit corridors and stations, leading to an increase in the PT ridership. But if proximity and density are our new fears, we have to ask ourselves: Will COVID-19 kill TOD someday? Is it right for cities to still embrace TOD given the rise of NMT? Can cities strike the balance between density, land-use diversity, and transit connectivity with resilient urban development? &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Embracing TOD as a longer-term approach can help protect the survival of the PT sector and still provide a resilient and sustainable urban transport system. The main principles of TOD focus on promoting the use of PT, encouraging the use of NMT, discouraging private cars and motorized transport, improving land use planning, pedestrian-friendly design, and increasing local economic development. Moreover, the approach aims at increasing the land-use diversity by placing job opportunities, residences, and public open spaces in proximity to each other, thus promoting NMT. The benefits of this are immediately felt by commuters as their trip distance and frequency are reduced, saving money and time. People can move efficiently across a city and easily access jobs and markets, increasing productivity.
TOD can be promising if its strategies and policies are tailored to maintain safe and sustainable accessibility during contingencies like COVID-19. Therefore, the responses of cities and the transport sector must include multiple efforts beyond increasing hygiene standards and reducing occupancy, particularly in developing countries where such programs are extremely challenging.&nbsp;
In the face of health crises, it is extremely necessary to optimize urban densities and implement short-term safety measures, especially in densely populated and poor communities. TOD can leverage the existing opportunities arising from new mobility patterns of people using NMT. Additionally, promoting NMT can be considered a complementary strategy for fostering equality and social inclusion in low-income cities. In this vein, TOD is the real game-changer in the process of planning for future pandemics.
<h3>How should Egypt prepare for this?</h3>
It will be important for the transport sector in Egypt to reassess and rethink TOD in transportation planning while accommodating for future pandemics. The public transport sector in Egypt includes a number of ministries (e.g. the Ministry Of Transport (MOT))<a href="#end_1">[i]</a> and governmental authorities at the central level (Hassan, 2016). These different entities need to devise a systematically coordinated response to ensure effective implementation of tailored strategies. In this vein, part of the global strategies and response can be tailored for our national context, including:
<ol>
<li>Public transport investments to:&nbsp;</li>
</ol>
<ol>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Improve road allocation to allow for additional cycle lanes, wider sidewalks for pedestrians, increase public open spaces, or car-free zones.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Provide public bicycle-sharing systems and micro-mobility services.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Proper investments in NMT infrastructure (e.g. cycle infrastructure and energy-efficient street lighting) will encourage the middle-class to leave their cars, promote the use of PT services and increase public revenue opportunities.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Improve commuter experience and safety by providing information on PT operation schedules (data sharing), enable e-ticketing and payment systems.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Introducing innovative financing solutions and viable mobility projects, which will require more engagement from the private sector.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Expanding all measures to include the informal transport sector and its workers.&nbsp; This entails re-orienting the informal transport networks and integrating&nbsp; them into a genuine public transport system (Bird et al., 2020).&nbsp;</li>
</ol>
<hr>
<a href="#_ednref1">[i] </a>The governmental bodies affiliated to the MOT are: (1) The Egyptian National Railways (ENR), (2) The National Authority of Tunnels (NAT), (3) The General Authority for Planning Transportation Projects (GAPTP), (4) The General Authority for Roads, Bridges and Land Transport (GARBLT), and (5) The National Institute of Transport (NIT).
<hr>
&nbsp;References
<ul>
<li>
Alexandria SUP 2032 (2014). Strategic Urban Plan Alexandria 2032 -Phase one: Transportation sector Report. The General Organization for Physical Planning (GOPP)
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Bird, J., Kriticos, S., &amp; Tsivanidis, N. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on public transport. International Growth Centre. https://www.theigc.org/blog/impact-of-covid-19-on-public-transport/
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Buzatu, S., &amp; Pianta, L. (2020). How the Covid-19 pandemic is changing urban mobility. STARDUST. http://stardustproject.eu/news/how-covid19-is-changing-urban-mobility/
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Goetsch, H., &amp; Quiros, T. P. (2020). COVID-19 creates new momentum for cycling and walking. We can&rsquo;t let it go to waste! The World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/covid-19-creates-new-momentum-cycling-and-walking-we-cant-let-it-go-waste
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Hassan, S. (2016). Decision-making for sustainable transport planning: reducing car dependency culture in Alexandria, Egypt.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Ibrahim, S. M. S. Z. (2020). The Making of Creative Cities: Exploring the Role of Sustainable Urban Mobility (SUM) (A. A. R. Galaby &amp; A. A. Abdrabo (eds.); 1st ed.). IGI Global. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-4948-3.ch009
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Jainer, S., &amp; Yadav, S. (2020). COVID-19 and green, open spaces: What is going to be our new normal? https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/urbanisation/covid-19-and-green-open-spaces-what-is-going-to-be-our-new-normal--71501
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Laker, L. (2020). In a Global Health Emergency, the Bicycle Shines. CITY LAB.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Medimorec, N., Enriquez, A., Hosek, E., &amp; Peet, K. (2020). Impacts of COVID-19 on Mobility on urban mobility. May, 1&ndash;23.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Schwedhelm, A., Li, W., Harms, L., &amp; Adriazola-Steil, C. (2020). Biking Provides a Critical Lifeline During the Coronavirus Crisis. World Resources Institute.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Siripurapu, A. (2020). The Economic Effects of Working From Home. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/economic-effects-working-home&nbsp;
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Valente, V. (2020). The COVID-19 outbreak and implications to sustainable urban mobility &ndash; some observations. Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative. https://www.transformative-mobility.org/news/the-covid-19-outbreak-and-implications-to-public-transport-some-observations
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Wuennenberg, L. (2020). COVID-19 RECOVERY: A GAME-CHANGER FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY? International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). https://www.iisd.org/sustainable-recovery/covid-19-recovery-a-game-changer-for-sustainable-urban-mobility/
</li>
</ul>

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