Modern production technologies have shifted rapidly in the last 15 years, with innovation and knowledge acquisition being the new drivers of self-sustained economic growth. Enabling this growth requires quality education, specialized skills and timely technology absorption.
Labor markets are also predicted to conform to such transformations. By 2030, between 3% and 14% of global workers will have to change occupations, along with learning new skills. Future occupations will require advanced levels of education, creativity, and higher levels of cognitive abilities. In fact, it is predicted that a new occupational paradigm will replace the &lsquo;one-job, one-career&rsquo; standard which has prevailed for decades. Accordingly, this shall necessitate lifelong learning structures that facilitate skill-enrichment and knowledge acquisition.
This commentary assesses Egypt&rsquo;s status in skill acquisition and adaptability by examining the connection between the public education system and labor market needs, through an educational justice lens.
<h3>Learning, skill acquisition, and educational justice in Egypt</h3>
The literature on educational justice distinguishes between educational equality (where students receive equal or the same education) and equity (where students get fair access to equal education). &nbsp;The first assumes that students come from equal or similar starting points, whereas the latter is more sensitive to differences among students. Educational justice can then be evaluated from different angles: from qualified teachers and school resources, to parents&rsquo; education and students&rsquo; academic ability. The emphasis in this commentary is on the tracking system, a defining characteristic of the education system in Egypt.
Tracking in Egypt is administered by sorting students into one of two tracks: general or vocational. The first provides students with broad knowledge and basic skills in mathematics and communication, acting as the foundation for higher levels of learning beyond high school. The latter encompasses shorter, more focused training and restrictive curriculum to ease the transition from high school to work. Compared to the general track curriculum, vocational track education is less likely to offer advanced instructions in math and science.
In Egypt, free compulsory education, or basic education, incorporates students between the ages of six and 15. Lasting from grade one to grade nine, this stage is further divided into six years of elementary education, with no formal admissions requirements, and three years of preparatory education.
The first tracking (or sorting) of students begins after completing the initial six years of basic education, moving into the preparatory level. This is the stage at which skills, knowledge acquisition, and future employment prospects are determined. It is also when forces of inequity begin to form.&nbsp;Based on their academic achievements in year six of basic education, high performing students are sorted into the general preparatory track, while low performers are tracked into vocational preparatory education. This initial sorting evokes a sense of early exposure to &ldquo;injustice&rdquo; in accessing future education opportunities, which proves challenging to remedy later on. It is worth emphasizing that students who fail to pass the last year of basic education twice are automatically sorted to the vocational preparatory track. Based on this sorting, the perception of 'vocational education as the track of (and for) lower aptitude students' was born.
Successful graduates of vocational preparatory education are routinely (once again) enrolled in the vocational secondary system. However, graduates of general preparatory education are free to choose between the general or vocational secondary tracks. The vocational track, quite recently, used to attract over 50% of graduates from the preparatory stage. The popularity of this option dates back to the policy of guaranteed employment, implemented during the 1960s &ndash; 1990s, when fresh graduates entered the labor market immediately after their graduation. In 2011, vocational secondary students represented 57% of all secondary graduates. By 2017, however, they barely comprised 50% (see Figure 1).
<img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/k1UA2VexgKtpiA9DXxGasiKo0chATL6IULFodUQEPuv-Mn4dk0YIQClk1eRROcA2zu3LTZkmObhFs6MAsM8zDssWvDDf2mfDbCOVFQCu9aiuQgekhb6kpATKeMhfNl6302r_To4gq5NIEg3pde7ZTw" width="730" height="329"> Source: <a style="color: #000000;" href="http://data.uis.unesco.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EDULIT_DS">http://data.uis.unesco.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EDULIT_DS</a>
Upon completion of this level, vocational secondary students earn a &lsquo;middle technical&rsquo; diploma. Yet, they may further pursue a two-year technical degree, earning a &lsquo;First technician&rsquo; diploma upon graduation. This is a non-tertiary, post-secondary level of education.
General secondary students, however, earn a &lsquo;Thanawya Amma&rsquo; certificate, which is detrimental for enrollment into tertiary education. Here, a &lsquo;second sorting&rsquo; ensues. On the one hand, high performers in the general secondary education stage can pursue (the highly subsidized) public tertiary education. On the other hand, low performers with &lsquo;Thanawya Amma&rsquo;, for whom public tertiary education is no longer an option, have one of two choices: 1) enroll in a two-year industrial, commercial, or technical program, earning the &lsquo;above middle&rsquo; diploma, or 2) join the expensive private tertiary institutes.
Both types of sorting in the education system amplify the social gap between low performers, who end up with a vocational diploma or a technician title, and high performing tertiary graduates with a favorably perceived high aptitude and a valued degree. In turn, the labor market implicitly links potentially skilled employment with a college degree. This social and educational gap is further manifested in completion rates of general secondary stage by income quintiles. For instance, the richest quintile records a 73% completion rate, compared to 27% for the poorest quintile and 29% for the second poorest quintile (UNESCO, 2014).
Regarding higher education, enrollment at the tertiary level rose by 40% between 2011 and 2017 in public universities. However, this increase in enrollment is drifting away from STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) field enrollments, the building blocks of a knowledge economy and the foundation for high tech industry and highly skilled workers. (see Figure 2). The result of this education system is a yearly rise in cohorts of labor force participants who are either: 1) college graduates (with over 85% specialized in non-STEM fields), or 2) graduates with intermediate-level skills, stigmatized by the society for their low academic achievements.
<img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/HFbWuDi-M_9p06Uik782MrsiBAY74whGzdVXItCBD2D-yTbcMzMUYFbbesncMh-3xl8uJh6pG5U41yHTSruONVgwMjnDZ3VgoJ1M6FZxiOfqC4e5vt3AjOZj-2wZ6-lDHqlGPCsvBRsF1PnGMPEvVg" width="707" height="422">
Source: <a style="color: #000000;" href="http://data.uis.unesco.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EDULIT_DS">http://data.uis.unesco.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=EDULIT_DS</a>
<h3>Labor market needs </h3>
Mapping employment by skill levels in Egypt suggests a labor market that is driven by credentialism (i.e. inflating minimum job requirements) rather than productivity. (see Figures 3 and 4), where:
Skill level 1=completion of primary basic education
Skill level 2=completion of preparatory level education
Skill level 3=completion of secondary level and up to 3 years of tertiary education
Skill level 4=completion of more than 3 years of tertiary education
<img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/xoNzrBjegprlY3gdmuHPIawzqott2iRhgUx9wTyar9P5T-kgOPJAUsxVtK5Fr1TWYGHdqRlb54RhslID8r8N450vcQQUu7LytEq3X5wSKV1udHenh2FuDMgBSzYh5zR-JtQ0ReSBiVHVCdT6WPw4fQ" width="685" height="326">
Source: ILO, <a style="color: #000000;" href="https://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/ilostat-home/home">https://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/ilostat-home/home</a>
To elaborate, between 2009 and 2017, the percentage of graduates with skill levels 3 and 4 rose by 8% and 12%, respectively (figure not shown). Yet during the same period, most of the newly generated jobs were in skill level 2, while jobs requiring skill levels 3 &amp; 4 declined. (see figure 3). Moreover, figure (4) shows that most of the unemployed workers (with prior work experiences) are qualified for skill level 2-jobs. Poorly trained and labeled &lsquo;low academic achievers&rsquo; become unattractive to hire. Instead, employers are compelled to hire college graduates who could perform skill level 2-jobs, or engineers to replace technicians. &nbsp;The result is a labor market with limited to no employment prospects for middle-skilled candidates, a surging demand on tertiary education, and wasting scarce resources.
<img src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/vvWtgTw2XpRrnAfdg2L006nTMzNpoAHeQu7Jd7lV4-nxjFirTZ-UbFZRK3xc0pRJwqQF1bio92hcsSn1SEmwpkOYfcrrxbE5hhGHw24_7AtKuvJBSglDqgxXkib5Kf7e3oxMnDyZ0UNIHN2zFX_aHg" width="708" height="326">
Source: <a style="color: #000000;" href="https://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/ilostat-home/home">https://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/ilostat-home/home</a>
<h3>The resulting impact on Egypt&rsquo;s global competitiveness</h3>
The Egyptian government recognizes the importance of investing in a mid- and advanced level workforce. In 2015, the government established an independent ministry of vocational education with an estimated budget of $1.25 billion to train students of vocational schools, noting the schools had suffered from negligence for many years.
In addition, the Ministry of Education and Technical Education (MOETE) completed its Education Sector Strategy for 2014-2030. The Strategy recognizes the need to improve quality through reforms in the areas of curriculum development, teacher training, school leadership, and student assessment practices.
However, the execution of a plan towards a sustained and adaptable educational system, that is equity-conscious, does not need a new ministry for vocational education or a new committee to update the curriculum; instead, there is a need to evaluate the current structure of dual tracks (vocational and general). Decades of stigmatized notions about vocational education and technical jobs that are synonymous with low academic performances, in addition to societal perceptions linking success to a college degree, will not be easily altered by changes in curriculum structure or advanced teacher trainings.
Looking at where Egypt stands in terms of skill competitiveness, recent ranking statistics reveal a setback on many fronts. For example:
<ol style="text-align: justify;">
<li>The Global Talent Competitiveness Index (GTCI) of 2018, which ranks world countries according to their ability to compete for talent, ranks Egypt at 104 out of 119 countries.</li>
<li>The GTCI report of 2018 shows Egypt&rsquo;s rank in &ldquo;The percentage of technicians and associate professionals out of total employment&rdquo; went from 50 in 2011 to 60 in 2016.</li>
</ol>
Future efforts should be directed towards overhauling the current system and finding equitable alternatives to practices subjected to students as early as 12 years of age. Failing an academic track should translate into a successful recovery in another track, or a second chance in the same track. In the U.S., for example, 60% of high school dropouts eventually earn a high school GED (General Educational Development) certificate. More importantly, almost 96% of employers accept GED as being equal to a high school diploma.
<h3 style="text-align: justify;">Conclusion</h3>
Therefore, the new reform initiative should take a holistic approach towards one goal: transforming the economy from being production-based to being knowledge-based. It must act as a catalyst to predict and quickly respond to future needs of the labor market, not just matching current needs. Accordingly, skill acquisition and knowledge awareness should be part of all levels of education.
The new education system should represent and target new generations with an attractive name, accompanied by a marketing campaign emphasizing its distinguished value in the labor market. It may further be accompanied by a complementary tax incentive for employers hiring mid-level, skilled graduates. The new education system should combine both classroom learning and on the job training; hence, culminating in a certified package of related skills that are portable and sought for in the labor market. It must encourage the eventual transformation into knowledge-management, as opposed to production-management.
<hr>
References
<ul>
<li>
Ahmed, T. (2016). Labour market outcome for formal vocational education and training in India: Safety net and beyond. IIMB Management Review, 28, 98-110. Retrieved from <a style="color: #000000;" href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2016.05.002">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iimb.2016.05.002</a>.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt; text-align: left;">
Eichhorst, W. (2015). Does vocational training help young people find a (good) job? IZA World of Labor. Retrieved from doi: 10.15185/izawol.112
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt; text-align: left;">
Kis, V., &amp; Windisch, H. (2018), Making skills transparent: Recognising vocational skills acquired through workbased learning. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 180. OECD Publishing, Paris. Retrieved from <a style="color: #000000;" href="https://doi.org/10.1787/5830c400-en">https://doi.org/10.1787/5830c400-en</a>.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt; text-align: left;">
Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Javier, O., &amp; Said, M. (2018, March). Inequality and inclusive growth in the South Mediterranean region: Are education and innovation activities favoring firm performance and citizens&rsquo; wellbeing? FEMISE, FEM42-10. Retrieved from <a style="color: #000000;" href="http://www.femise.org/en/slideshow-en/inequality-and-inclusive-growth-are-education-and-innovation-favoring-firm-performance-and-well-being/">http://www.femise.org/en/slideshow-en/inequality-and-inclusive-growth-are-education-and-innovation-favoring-firm-performance-and-well-being/</a>.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt; text-align: left;">
Ministry of Education. (2014). The Strategic Plan of Pre-University Education 2014 -2030: Providing Quality Education for Every Child. Ministry of Education-Cairo, Egypt. Retrieved from <a style="color: #000000;" href="http://planipolis.iiep.unesco.org/sites/planipolis/files/ressources/egypt_strategic_plan_pre-university_education_2014-2030_eng.pdf">http://planipolis.iiep.unesco.org/sites/planipolis/files/ressources/egypt_strategic_plan_pre-university_education_2014-2030_eng.pdf</a>.
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt; text-align: left;">
OECD. (2015). Schools for Skills: A New Learning Agenda for Egypt. OECD. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/countries/egypt/Schools-for-skills-a-new-learning-agenda-for-Egypt.pdF
</li>
<li style="font-size: 10pt;">
Wodon, Q., Evans B., Male, C., Onagoruwa, A., Savadogo, A., &amp; Yedan, A. (2016, June). Egypt-Social Sector Notes: Selected issues and options for the education sector. World Bank Group. Retrieved from <a style="color: #000000;" href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/390221503493926699/pdf/116418-WP-EG-Social-Sector-Notes-Education-EGYPT0-2-PUBLIC.pdf">http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/390221503493926699/pdf/116418-WP-EG-Social-Sector-Notes-Education-EGYPT0-2-PUBLIC.pdf</a>.
</li>
</ul>

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