In this week&rsquo;s edition leading up to COP28, we examine Egypt&rsquo;s sustainability initiatives-including its mega land reclamation projects and new modes of transportation&nbsp;
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<h3 dir="ltr">The New Countryside: A Sure Thing or Reckless Gamble?&nbsp;</h3>
President al-Sisi&rsquo;s election campaign has highlighted the New Countryside project, a multipronged initiative aimed at expanding agriculture horizontally by reclaiming desert lands and stemming <a href="https://landsat.visibleearth.nasa.gov/view.php?id=149183">encroachments on fertile agricultural land</a> in the Nile delta and river valley. According to the government, the new reclamation projects aim to achieve self-sufficiency, enhance food security, increase exports, create new urban communities, and provide jobs. Some observers, however, believe that the many problems with these projects could preclude the achievement of these goals.&nbsp;
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<h3 dir="ltr">The most important projects: The New Delta and the manmade river in the Western Desert</h3>
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One of the most important and perhaps the largest of the new reclamation projects is the <a href="https://issuu.com/youm7/docs/_-_2023?fbclid=IwAR3OvDlPMDbk3ClJ1QFtoQigHe3F22s-YLcZyfptN4FZF2Mby_lanhq5uK0">New Delta</a> project, which began in 2016. The 2.2 million feddan project is located along the Rod al-Farag&ndash;New Dabaa axis and is projected to cost USD5 billion.&nbsp;
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<h3 dir="ltr">Costly reclamation, underdevelopment</h3>
Social researcher Saqr al-Nour, who specializes in agriculture, asserts that the state&rsquo;s land reclamation policy has not changed since the Mubarak era. It continues to ignore small and medium farmers and food producers and is mainly geared to major capital, whether Egyptian or foreign.
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Al-Nour says that the land allotment terms for smallholders put them at a disadvantage, making it difficult for them to participate in these projects. These conditions represent a clear break with the <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/03056244.2019.1755190?scroll=top&amp;needAccess=true">few concessions</a> given to young people and graduates under Mubarak, which allowed them to pay for the value of reclaimed land in installments over 30 years
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Investors always <a href="https://infonile.org/ar/2020/03/%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%82-%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%AC-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%BA%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%A6/">prefer to rely on mechanization</a>, which does not create many decent jobs and, in turn, encourage people to migrate to these reclaimed areas and establish new urban communities. This is the case with tracts under the Toshka project that have been sold to Gulf investors. At times, investors are also involved in speculation, investing in lands as part of their real estate portfolio that can subsequently be resold.&nbsp;
At the same time, the high cost of these projects <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Egyptian%20Land%20Reclamation%20Efforts_Cairo_Egypt_5-16-2016.pdf">calls into question</a> the government&rsquo;s ability to follow through on implementation, especially since the Egyptian economy is likely to deteriorate further.&nbsp;
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<h3 dir="ltr">Delusions of self-sufficiency and the primacy of export</h3>
With regard to self-sufficiency in strategic goods, a <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/report/downloadreportbyfilename?filename=Egyptian%20Land%20Reclamation%20Efforts_Cairo_Egypt_5-16-2016.pdf">study</a> issued by the US Department of Agriculture in 2016 concluded that such projects would not allow Egypt to abandon commodity imports like wheat.
Assuming the government decided to grow only wheat on the entirety of lands covered by the 1.5 Million Feddans project, the study projected that it would increase domestic wheat production by 45%, or about 3.78 million metric tons, while Egypt typically imports nearly 11 million metric tons of wheat annually. In fact, despite relatively high wheat production in recent years, wheat imports are expected <a href="https://apps.fas.usda.gov/newgainapi/api/Report/DownloadReportByFileName?fileName=Grain%20and%20Feed%20Annual_Cairo_Egypt_EG2023-0003.pdf">to rise</a> due to population increases.
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Moreover, the authors of the study noted that reclaimed land is typically used for the cultivation of vegetables and fruits, which can be exported for high profit margins.&nbsp;
According to the <a href="https://issuu.com/youm7/docs/_-_2023?fbclid=IwAR3OvDlPMDbk3ClJ1QFtoQigHe3F22s-YLcZyfptN4FZF2Mby_lanhq5uK0">Nation&rsquo;s Story document</a>, one of the achievements of the new land reclamation projects is that Egypt&rsquo;s agricultural exports have increased markedly in recent years, <a href="https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/248930/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%82%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D8%B5%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B2%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AE%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D9%85-2022?lang=ar">reaching</a> 6.5 million tons in 2022&mdash;up 800,000 tons from the previous year&mdash;for a value of USD3.3 billion. But in exporting crops, al-Nour says, Egypt is also exporting water, which exacerbates the water crisis and may complicate negotiations on Egypt&rsquo;s share of the Nile waters and the Renaissance Dam. There is also the problem of distribution of returns. According to al-Nour, the beneficiaries of export revenues are large farms and investors involved in reclamation projects, although the cost of infrastructure for the projects is borne by the public treasury.
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<h2 dir="ltr">Are Environmentally Friendly Transit Projects Friendly to Citizens?&nbsp;</h2>
The <a href="https://www.albankaldawli.org/ar/news/press-release/2022/10/03/egypt-us-400-million-project-will-help-to-improve-and-decarbonize-logistics-and-transportation-sectors">transportation sector</a> in Egypt and globally is one of the most polluting sectors and the most fossil fuel intensive. The transport of containers and other cargo by train has a lower carbon footprint than overland transport. 
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<h3 dir="ltr">International financing for sustainable transit in Egypt</h3>
Egypt finances sustainable transit projects through soft loans, and its <a href="https://moic.gov.eg/page/nwfe">National Climate Action Investment Program (NWFE)</a> includes a special axis for financing sustainable transport projects. A <a href="https://moic.gov.eg/page/nwfe">joint agreement</a> was signed between the Ministry of International Cooperation, the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Transport, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the French Development Agency to finance transport sector projects. The European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development each pledged EUR1.5 billion, while the French Development Agency pledged EUR500 million.&nbsp;
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International financing for sustainable transit puts more pressure on the Egyptian economy in the form of loan payments and debt service. It also reflects a structural problem&mdash;namely, poor dollar revenues against our developmental needs.
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A comparison of the economic cost of various sustainable transit projects reveals the following:
1. The high cost of the monorail lines: According to <a href="https://www.albawabhnews.com/1285884#:~:text=%D9%88%D8%A3%D8%B6%D8%A7%D9%81%20%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%8A%D9%84%D8%8C%20%D8%A3%D9%86%20%D8%B9%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%A8%20%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B1,%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89%20%D8%B6%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A9%20%D8%AA%D9%88%D9%81%D8%B1%20%D9%85%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF%20%D9%88%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85">transit and road experts</a>, the monorail contravenes the foundations set by the <a href="https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/242096/%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%B6%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A6%D8%A9?lang=ar">Ministry of Transport</a>, which recommends it for narrow, crowded, winding streets. In contrast, the monorail was built in new neighborhoods with broad streets (October 6th, the Fifth Settlement, the Administrative Capital, and even Nasr City, although it is an old neighborhood). In these areas, the high wind speeds and sand will have an adverse impact on operating efficiency.&nbsp;
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1701029477imageEd. 49-2_En 5.png" alt="" width="405" height="320">
Additionally, the monorail comes with high construction and maintenance costs. Given the high cost per kilometer of monorail (<a href="https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/242096/%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%B6%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A6%D8%A9?lang=ar">USD30 million</a>), it would make more economic sense, and better suit the targeted areas, to have established rapid bus transit (<a href="https://www.sis.gov.eg/Story/242096/%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D8%AE%D8%B6%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A6%D8%A9?lang=ar">USD15 million/km</a>) or electric light rail (USD22 million/km) instead.
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The high cost of the monorail, which places a substantial burden on state resources, prompted the government to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/mada.masr/photos/a.564476860276121/5395707033819722/?locale=ar_AR">put up a stake</a> in the monorail and rapid rail projects on the stock exchange. It also offered to name monorail, electric light rail, and rapid rail stations after businessmen or their enterprises, as well as private universities, in exchange for financing in euros.
2. The expansion of sustainable transit projects runs up against a real dilemma: the availability of the electricity necessary to power them, especially given the current profound crisis in electricity. Already the government has sought to ease loads by initiating <a href="https://aps.aucegypt.edu/en/articles/1335/how-is-government-planning-on-bringing-prices-down-and-increasing-electricity">strategic blackouts</a>, which have continued since the summer.
3. Ticket prices: Will they be affordable to citizens in the current economic conditions, especially considering the high cost of construction? When the light rail project began operating, the high price of tickets depressed public demand, prompting the company to offer <a href="https://www.youm7.com/story/2022/9/18/%D8%AA%D8%AE%D9%81%D9%8A%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%AA%D8%B5%D9%84-%D9%84%D9%8050-%D9%86%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D8%A3%D8%B3%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%83%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%82%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AE%D9%81%D9%8A%D9%81/5910944#google_vignette">discounts of up to 50%</a> to encourage its use.
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"Adasa" is a weekly policy digest by Alternative Policy Solutions. "Adasa" provides an analysis of a select number of policy developments and their effect on inclusive development and socioeconomic change
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