Population growth has always raised concerns about food security and sufficiency of land and water resources to cater for a growing population. As the most populous Arab country, with a population of 100 million, Egypt is no exception to these challenges. In the 1990s and early 2000s, family planning campaigns were effective in slowing down population growth; the trend was reversed, however, as the 2017 census revealed a fertility rate of 3.4 births per woman, up from 3 births per woman in 2006 (World Bank, 2019).&nbsp;
The pressure of a fast growing population is compounded by a number of other factors that have the potential to compromise the nation&rsquo;s food security. Water scarcity has always been a significant threat. Today, the situation is exacerbated by the risk of decline of the Nile flow after the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (Abdelaal &amp; Thilmany, 2019). Furthermore, climate change is expected to affect water resources due to a decrease in precipitation and an increase of crop water requirements during higher temperatures. Loss of arable land is also a risk due to land salinization following rising sea level as well as rapid urbanization and the ensuing encroachment on agricultural land (Mahmoud, 2020).
Food insecurity at the individual level is a growing risk. In fact, there is a close correlation between poverty and undernourishment. Over the past two decades, there has been a steady increase in poverty rates from 16.7% in 2000 to 32.5% in 2017 (El Ashry et. al., 2019). The prevalence of undernourishment has gone from 14% in 2009 (World Food Program, 2013) to 25% in 2018 (Helmy and Roushdy, 2019).
To date, food insecurity in Egypt has been primarily manifested at the individual level in the lack of access to food due to low purchasing power rather than lack of food supplies on a national level<a href="#_edn1" name="_ednref1">[i]</a> (World Food Program, 2013). In this commentary, I shed light on some policies employed by the Government of Egypt to ensure food security at the national level and how these policies may have contributed to higher poverty and food insecurity at the individual level, particularly in rural areas. I also suggest policies for national and individual food security.
<h3>Liberalization policies and food security</h3>
In the mid-1980s, under the pressure of international financial organizations, Egypt adopted a package of policies aiming to liberalize the agricultural sector. These policies included the removal of input subsidies, guaranteed output prices and purchases, and the liberalization of agricultural imports. As a water-stressed country, Egypt was also recommended to adopt a trade-based approach to food security. This approach encourages specialization in the production and exporting of high-value non-water intensive crops, such as fruits, vegetables and tree crops than using earnings from exports to finance imports of water-intensive crops like cereals (Harrigan, 2014).
The problem with this set of policies is that food security is not a purely economic policy issue (Harrigan, 2014). While economically sound, a trade-based approach to food security makes countries vulnerable to supply shocks causing sudden changes to prices. This became clear during the global food crises in 2007-08 and 2010-11 that resulted in high volatile food prices as well as with the disruption of agricultural supply chains during the current pandemic. Moreover, producing-for-export requires a critical mass of assets including land, capital and knowledge that is not always accessible to small landholders (Zurayk, 2012, p.23 in Harrigan, 2014). The general environment, at that point, was thus favoring large scale agriculture. This was further accentuated by the revision of the land tenancy law that resulted in the dispossession of an estimated number of 904,000 small holders, in addition to directing most of the government&rsquo;s spending to the land reclamation project in Toshka. This project also absorbed a large share of water resources, thus affecting the share of smallholders (Bush, 2014; Ayeb and Bush, 2019, pp. 136-139).
Such a liberalized environment not only deprived small farmers from their previous subsidy system, but also denied them access to land --a central guarantor of their food security. Statistics from rural Egypt highlight the systematic disadvantage of its inhabitants. In 2017, 51.9% of the population in rural Upper Egypt were poor compared to 30% in urban Upper Egypt, and 27.3% in rural Lower Egypt were poor in comparison to 14.3% in urban Lower Egypt (El Ashry et.al., 2019). Moreover, in 2018, 28% of the rural population suffered from food insecurity compared to 21% of the urban population. Similarly, people working in agriculture, forestry and fishery were second to most likely to suffer from food insecurity with 31% among them experiencing the ordeal (Helmy &amp; Roushdy, 2019)
A different approach to reform could have addressed market imperfections while supporting rural incomes and livelihoods (Bush, 2014). A food security policy that solely focuses on increasing production while disregarding small farmers is overlooking the fact that hunger in today&rsquo;s world does not result from the inability of global supply to meet demand; it is rather due to the lack of purchasing power experienced by the poor. This is why a socially just food security policy does not only focus on production to meet growing needs, rather, it aims to reduce rural poverty by boosting the incomes of small-scale farmers (De Schutter, 2013).
<h3>The way forward</h3>
National food security
The global food crises have exposed the risks associated with a trade-based approach to food security. Focusing on domestic production is, therefore, essential. While the scarcity of arable land limits the potential for increasing the cultivated area, there is much room for improving water use efficiency in agriculture. Moreover, prioritizing the agricultural sector in research and development (R&amp;D) is crucial for crop improvement and crop management (Harrigan, 2014, pp. 179-181).
Imports will always be necessary to close gaps in domestic production. Further integration into global food markets is essential to reduce the vulnerability to supply and price shocks. This could be achieved through investment in food storage and transport infrastructure to reduce importing costs. In addition, forming grain ties with major exporters via diplomatic links or long term trade agreements with other countries to guarantee supplies of food commodities have the potential to reduce the actual cost of food purchase. Physical grain reserves or alternatively virtual grain reserves via financial instruments could be used for emergency aid during a shock or as a buffer to stabilize prices (Harrigan, 2014, pp. 164-169).
A step further would be to move towards sustainable agriculture. Current agricultural production based on monoculture will lead to the loss of biodiversity, the degradation and pollution of soils and water in the long run due to the abuse of agrochemicals. Studies on agro-ecology, which is the &ldquo;application of the science of ecology to agricultural systems&rdquo; proved its potential in significantly increasing crop yield. This system also relies on locally produced inputs such as natural fertilizers which have the potential to cut the cost of inputs from fertilizers and pesticides for small farmers. Moreover, it is well suited for small scale agriculture as it requires the division of land into smaller units based on the distribution of soil, land surface and climate (De Schutter, 2013).
Individual food security
Agricultural growth in Egypt is more likely to benefit the richer quintiles due to inequality in land distribution and in access to credit (Breisinger et al., 2012). Policies for the improvement of agricultural productivity should, therefore, be designed to be pro-poor. This could be achieved through a fair distribution of assets and designing and expanding financial services tailored to farmers&rsquo; needs including microcredit, saving and crop insurance. It is also important to build the institutional capacity of farmers&rsquo; organizations like cooperatives which can organize farmers' action and achieve economies of scale in terms of collection, storage, transportation, processing of crops, and use and maintenance of equipment. They can also help integrate small farmers into upgraded value chains to ensure that they receive fair prices for their products (Harrigan, 2014, pp. 187-195).
Moreover, social protection policies are crucial to ensure food security of the most vulnerable. Takaful and Karama cash transfer programs are the main social protection schemes adopted since 2015. Impact evaluation of the programs shows that Takaful beneficiary households increased their consumption by 8.4% compared to non-beneficiary households. Takaful also resulted in a greater increase in food spending than in nonfood spending, with households spending more on fruit, meat, and poultry (Breisinger et. al., 2018). In addition, the food subsidy system is central to Egypt&rsquo;s social assistance. The 2015 Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey showed that it favored households living in rural areas in terms of coverage (ESCWA, 2020).
In conclusion, one-sided policy-making, which overlooks the interests of certain categories could be counterproductive and detrimental to these categories. When adopting new policies, it is, therefore, essential to ensure that gains and losses are fairly shared across all stakeholders. This is only achieved through an inclusive process of policy making that ensures that all voices are represented and their interests are equally taken into consideration.
<hr>
<a href="#_ednref1" name="_edn1">[i]</a> National food security represents the supply side and is fulfilled when a nation has adequate food supplies to feed its population, whether via domestic production, food imports, food aid, or some combination of these. Individual food security represents the demand side and is fulfilled when all individuals in a country have access to adequate food (Harrigan, 2014, p.10)
<hr>
References
<ul>
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Abdelaal, H.S.A. &amp; Thilmany, D. (2019). Grains Production Prospects and Long Run Food Security in Egypt. Sustainability, 11(16). Retrieved from <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164457">https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164457</a>
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Ayeb, H. &amp; Bush, R. (2019). Food Insecurity and Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa: Agrarian Questions in Egypt and Tunisia. London: Anthem Press
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Breisinger, C., Ecker, O., Al-Riffai, P. &amp; Yu, B. (2012). Beyond the Arab Awakening: Policies and Investments for Poverty Reduction and Food Security. Washington D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Retrieved from <a style="color: #333333;" href="http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896295452">http://dx.doi.org/10.2499/9780896295452</a>
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Breisinger, C., Eldidi, H., El-Enbaby, H., Gilligan, D., Karachiwalla, N. Kassim, Y. Kurdi, S., Jilani, A.H., Thai, G. (2018). Egypt&rsquo;s Takaful and Karama cash transfer program: Evaluation of program impacts and recommendations. IFPRI Policy Brief October 2018. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Retrieved from <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896295964">https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896295964</a>
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De Schutter, O. (2013). Commentary VI: Agroecology: A Solution to the Crises of Food Systems and Climate Change. Trade and Environment Review 2013. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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El-Ashry, F., Metwaly, S., Youssef, S., Yousry, I., Madouh, N. &amp; Gamal, A. (2019). The Main Indicators of the Household, Income, Expenditure, Consumption Survey (1 October 2017 &ndash; 30 August 2018). Cairo: CAPMAS.
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Mahmoud, M.A. (2017). Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector in Egypt. In A. M. Negm (Ed.), Conventional Water Resources and Agriculture in Egypt (pp. 213-227). Springer International Publishing AG 2017. Retrieved from <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-95065-5">https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-95065-5</a>.
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World Food Program (2013). The Status of Poverty and Food Security in Egypt: Analysis and Policy Recommendations Preliminary Summary Report. Cairo: World Food Program.
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