Today, the world&rsquo;s collective attention is geared toward fighting the COVID-19 pandemic and shaping a sustainable recovery, even as another crisis of equal, if not greater, severity approaches: climate change. Much like COVID-19, the impacts of climate change will inevitably crash our economic and social systems when we least expect it.
From March 12&ndash;14, 2020, Egypt witnessed severe weather conditions, popularly dubbed the &ldquo;Dragon Storm.&rdquo; Egypt&rsquo;s Meteorological Authority described the &ldquo;unprecedented&rdquo; torrential rainfall, strong winds, and sandstorms as the worst weather experienced since 1994. Egypt, a country known for its arid and warm climate, has lately experienced more frequent heavy rains and flooding due to effects of climate change. In late October 2019, another rainstorm resulted in traffic chaos in Cairo&rsquo;s streets and exposed the fragility of existing infrastructure to handle similar crises.
<h3>A global crisis</h3>
The 2015 Paris Agreement was signed by 195 countries, including Egypt, to combat climate change and adapt to its effects globally. It aims to limit the rise in temperature to 1.5&deg;C relative to pre-industrial levels and to no higher than 2&deg;C by 2100. This can be achieved through societal transformations in consumption patterns and ambitious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by shifting entire fuel economies to rely on alternative energy sources like solar and wind, as well as by specific measures in other sectors (e.g., energy efficiency in industry, waste utilization and recovery, and improved agricultural land management). This is a first approach to combat climate change&mdash;mitigation&mdash;that aims to prevent or reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Nonetheless, even the targeted temperature increases would be catastrophic for many regions. Without urgent global action, 100&ndash;400 million people would be at risk of hunger and 1&ndash;2 billion people could have no access to adequate water supply at 2&deg;C of warming (World Bank, 2018). Between 2030 and 2050, climate change is expected to cause 250,000 additional deaths per year and the displacement of 140 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America (World Bank, 2018). Furthermore, a 2015 study by the Institute for Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University estimated that 200 million climate refugees could be driven out of cities in the Middle East and South Asia by 2050.&nbsp;
<h3>Adapt to the Inevitable</h3>
Poor, disadvantaged populations living in vulnerable/informal areas are more severely impacted by natural disasters and climate change risks. Compared to richer people, they have lower capacity to adapt and are more vulnerable to death or disability and spikes in food prices. Thus, a second, parallel approach&mdash;adaptation&mdash;is unavoidable, entailing adjustments in economic structures and behaviors to reduce the vulnerability of society to the impacts of climate change. In addition to the Egyptian population&rsquo;s increasing water demand and the expected water scarcity due to the recent activation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, climate change poses risks to fresh water availability. This could drive the country closer to severe water scarcity (less than 500 cubic meters per capita) in the near future. Coastal zones will also be especially impacted, particularly with the rise of sea level in the Nile Delta,<a href="#_edn1" name="_ednref1">[i]</a> expected to reach 100 cm by 2100. The resulting intrusion of saline water would affect the quality of groundwater aquifers, agricultural land, and freshwater fisheries, consequently decreasing national food production by 11&ndash;51% and resulting in severe socioeconomic distress: destruction of homes and infrastructure, loss of life, migration of affected populations, higher unemployment, and a greater incidence of health hazards and disease.
<h3>Egypt and climate change</h3>
Egypt has put in place national institutional structures to combat climate change since 1996. The National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction was released in 2011 identifying the sectors affected by climate change and measures to adapt to its severity. In 2015, the National Climate Change Council (NCCC), chaired by the minister of environment, was formed to represent a wide range of governmental and non-governmental representatives. Egypt&rsquo;s periodic communication to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on its planned and achieved measures to combat climate change were reflected in Egypt&rsquo;s Nationally Determined Contributions Report (2015), Third National Communication Report (2016), and First Biennial Update Report (2019). Adaptation measures were implemented&mdash;for example, installing breakwaters on the coast of major cities in the Delta region to reduce the effects of rising sea levels on the populations&mdash;to promote resilience in water, agriculture, coastal zones, health, energy, and tourism. This is in addition to Egypt&rsquo;s Vision 2030, which encompasses the economic, social, and environmental pillars for development, in line with the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
Lately, Egypt has been active on the international political stage in promoting the region&rsquo;s stance on climate change by the appointment of President El Sisi as the coordinator of the Committee of the African Heads of State and Government on Climate Change. Yet the question is whether the country is prepared to handle the undeniable, imminent consequences of climate change and protect its most vulnerable populations. Will we learn from the COVID-19 crisis soon enough to prepare for the impending shocks of climate change? Despite deafening alarm bells, the climate crisis receives disproportionately little attention relative to its urgency and is largely neglected in the implementation of national megaprojects and development plans.
<h3>Poverty versus climate change</h3>
In essence, poverty-reduction policies also serve as climate mitigation and adaptation policies. The first priority to adapt to the effects of climate change should be to promote development in informal settlements trapped in a vicious cycle of poverty. This will not only improve people&rsquo;s quality of life, but is also one of the best ways to strengthen societies&rsquo; resilience to climate threats.&nbsp;Egypt&rsquo;s National Strategy for Adaptation still needs to be detailed into a National Adaptation Plan (NAP), which would be aligned to the country&rsquo;s poverty eradication goals as articulated in Egypt Vision 2030.
Specific, proactive measures should include innovative social protection systems that support the resilience of communities to anticipate, absorb, and adapt to climate risks. Such measures could include: mobile cash transfers in the event of crisis, subsidies to enhance food security, weather-indexed insurance for farmers,<a href="#_edn2" name="_ednref2">[ii]</a> and systems to facilitate mobility and effective resettlement for climate-affected communities. It is preferable to integrate these measures into the government&rsquo;s existing social safety nets (after the lifting of energy subsidies) and planned future mechanisms (e.g., farmer smart cards), making them scalable and well targeted.
Secondly, awareness raising and transparent information sharing is essential to prepare the public to cope with the impact of climate change, as amply demonstrated by the public response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet, climate change is almost unaddressed in Egyptian media, schools, and university curricula. Official published documents are highly technical, and accessible information is largely limited to professionals and academic circles. Moreover, early warning systems should be strengthened and made accessible to the public in a simple and effective manner through mobile applications, media, and other channels. Contingency funds and humanitarian aid could be increased as a result of improvements made to these early warning systems.
Thirdly, participatory approaches that empower affected communities are a key element of the solution. Involving communities in defining the priorities, planning, and implementation of adaptation measures ensures people&rsquo;s awareness and preparedness in times of crisis. Voicing their concerns and incorporating their ideas facilitates necessary dialogues and knowledge exchange with concerned officials. Civil society organizations can also influence decision makers on the formulation of adaptation programs responsive to the needs of poor and vulnerable communities. As clearly demonstrated by the COVID-19 crisis, government efforts alone will not be sufficient; private sector collaborations should therefore be encouraged under the umbrella of corporate social responsibility.
Finally, new investments should be targeted to engineering climate-resilient buildings and infrastructure. These structures would absorb climate change disturbances, mitigate its impacts, and still retain their basic functions (energy efficiency/zero carbon emissions, wastewater reuse). National standards and public procurement should integrate these requirements in the technical specifications for contractors. In addition, a nationwide program to build shelters could be launched as an emergency plan for displaced communities due to national disasters. The affected communities should be prioritized for jobs created within this sphere.
Climate change impacts will only increase over time. The silver lining is that there is still a window of opportunity to shift to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy as we shape the &ldquo;new normal&rdquo; after the COVID-19 crisis. The doubters claim that it would delay our plans, slow down economic growth, and burden the country with unnecessary investments, but disasters past and present prove that the cost and consequences of inaction are immeasurably greater. 
<hr>
<a href="#_ednref1" name="_edn1">[i]</a> There is a dearth of measurements and data on this topic. For a visualization of a sea-level increase of 0.5 and 1 m, see <a href="http://www.inforse.org/europe/dieret/Climate/climate%20graphics/34a.htm">http://www.inforse.org/europe/dieret/Climate/climate%20graphics/34a.htm</a>. <a href="#_ednref2" name="_edn2">[ii]</a> Index insurance is a new tool that farmers can use to help manage risk. It pays out based on an index, such as rainfall, measured at a local weather station or by satellite, rather than based on a consequence of bad weather , such as a farmer&rsquo;s crop yield. Unlike traditional crop insurance, the insurance company does not need to visit a farmer&rsquo;s field to determine premiums or assess damages. For example, if rainfall is below a pre-specified threshold, then the insurance pays out.&nbsp;
<hr>
References
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Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center. (2011). Egypt&rsquo;s national strategy for adaptation to climate change and disaster risk reduction. Egyptian Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center in cooperation with UNDP.
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Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency. (2015). <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Egypt%20First/Egyptian%20INDC.pdf">Egypt&rsquo;s intended nationally determined contributions submitted to the UNFCCC</a>. Ministry of Environment.
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Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency. (2016). Egypt&rsquo;s third national communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Ministry of Environment.
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International Organization for Migration. (2008). Migration and climate change (IOM Migration Research Series, no. 31).
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Khalil, A. A. &amp; Hassanein, M. K. (2016). Extreme weather events and negative impacts on Egyptian agriculture. International Journal of Advanced Research 4(12), 1843&ndash;1851. DOI:10.21474/ IJAR01/2592
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Ministry of Environment. (2018). Egypt&rsquo;s first biennial update report. Submitted to UNFCCC in December 2019.
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Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. (2017). <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/investing-in-climate-investing-in-growth_9789264273528-en#page1">Investing in climate, investing in growth</a>.
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World Bank. (2010). <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/4387%20p.%205.">World development report 2010: Development and climate change</a>.
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World Bank. (2018). <a style="color: #333333;" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2018/03/19/groundswell---preparing-for-internal-%20climate-migration">Groundswell: Preparing for internal climate migration</a><a style="color: #333333;" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/infographic/2018/03/19/groundswell---preparing-for-internal-%20climate-migration">.</a> World Bank.
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World Health Organization. (2014). Quantitative risk assessment of the effects of climate change on selected causes of death, 2030s and 2050s.
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