<h3>A Deeper Perspective on Climate Change.</h3>
<img style="display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1671699165image111.png" alt="" width="424" height="464">
&nbsp;Figure 1. Global Greenhouse Emissions by Gas. (Source: US Environmental Protection Agency)
Climate change is the gradual, long-term shift in global weather patterns. It is the result of anthropogenic activities in the last century; primarily the burning of fossil fuels (see Fig.1). These activities release Greenhouse Gases (GHG) which lock heat inside the atmosphere causing the planet to warm up. The earth is 1.1&deg;C hotter now than it was 100 years ago (IPCC, 2021).
It is important to note that the increase of the earth&rsquo;s temperature is not a phenomenon that humans can simply&nbsp; change or adapt to. The heating of the earth&rsquo;s temperature creates highly unpredictable, sometimes even aggressive, weather patterns. This has drastic impacts on how, and where people live. For example, the Jeddah region in Saudi Arabia witnesses &ldquo;drier months in the dry seasons, and higher intensity of rainfall in wet seasons&rdquo; (Subyani, Hajjar, 2016). The historical expansion of the city changed the topography of the region because natural water drainages were built over. The use of concrete used in this expansion effectively blocked rainwater from penetrating the ground to recharge groundwater. With a city-wide infrastructure that is not designed to accommodate a higher frequency of rainfall, compounded by an absence of a &ldquo;risk mitigation&rdquo; culture, flash floods ensue, with significant human and financial losses (Ameur, 2016).&nbsp;&nbsp;
Overlooking the environmental dimension of urban expansion stems from the reality that climate-related disasters were never in the human psyche to begin with. There was never a pressing need to collectively organise and govern humans and resources to bend to the will of the natural world.&nbsp;
Despite the global narrative on the need to incorporate environmental considerations to achieve sustainable development, most notably through multiple COPs and the 2015 Paris Agreement, the global community has not yet been able to follow through with their &ldquo;commitments&rdquo; and &ldquo;pledges.&rdquo;&nbsp;
This commentary aims to investigate why it is difficult for the global community to organise and govern themselves towards fulfilling their climate commitments, namely the 2015 Paris agreement pledges. It also addresses the policy priorities that should be addressed in&nbsp; future COPs.&nbsp;
<h3>Why is it Difficult for the International Community to Fulfil the 2015 Paris Pledges?&nbsp;</h3>
&nbsp;The Paris agreement is a legally binding international treaty that pledges committing scientific, human, and financial resources to limit global warming&nbsp; to below 2<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/">&deg;</a>C, preferably 1.5<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/">&deg;</a>C, compared to pre-industrial levels. It must be noted, however, that even if this aim is achieved, the world would continue to face a &ldquo;middle of the road&rdquo; scenario (see Fig. 2), where humanity will only be better adapted to a global warming of 2.7&deg;C by the year 2100 (Stone, 2021).
&nbsp;In terms of financing, developed countries made a pledge to finance the adaptation and mitigation plans of developing countries by USD 100 million by 2020 (UNFCCC, 2015). Yet, this has fallen short by almost USD 20 billion. Further reports suggest that some of the reported figures are inflated, and that significantly much more financing was directed towards mitigation instead of adaptation projects; because mitigation projects are easier to quantify and report (Timperley, 2021). In contrast, global military spending reached USD 2.1 trillion, with the richest and most polluting countries accounting for 62% of global military expenditure (SIPRI, 2022). If anything, this makes it evident that the issue here is not the lack of financial resources, nor the will to commit. Rather, it is how to organise ourselves to ensure following through with the Paris agreement pledges.&nbsp;
 <img src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1671699424image222.png" alt="" width="977" height="672"> Figure 2. Global Greenhouse Gas emissions and warming scenarios (Source: Our World in Data).
Perhaps the most important reason for the failure to commit to the Paris Agreement pledges is that the global community would face a scenario where the actual cost for avoiding a disastrous climate change scenario is dismantling the global economy as we know it . For example, 84% of global primary energy use is based on fossil fuels (Ritchie, Rosado, Roser, 2022), while 99% of plastics produced globally are sourced from fossil fuel-based chemicals (CIEL, 2017). These are only two examples of primary industries whose dismantling and/or substituting will not be a simple endeavour. Questions arise as to how an industry such as oil and gas, generating its highest ever profits in 2022 (Deloitte, 2022), can be dismantled? While the technology to generate clean energy is available and replicable, the inter-dependence of the fossil fuel economy in global geopolitics and global modes of production is seldom addressed.&nbsp;
&nbsp;In his book &ldquo;Rewiring America&rdquo;, author Saul Griffith compares the aggressiveness required to achieve a 1.5 - 2<a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/">&deg;</a>C to a &ldquo;war-time like mobilisation&rdquo; (Griffith, Fraser, Calisch, 2020). In truth, it is far more complex than that because the climate crisis is one of a wicked nature (Word Bank, 2014); thus governing its complexities, interdependencies, and certain unpredictability is key.&nbsp; 
<h3>What Do We Need from&nbsp; COPs?&nbsp;</h3>
Upcoming COPs should focus on two primary policy directions, as follows:&nbsp;
<h3>Decarbonization:&nbsp;</h3>
&nbsp;Committing to the Paris pledges requires achieving global net-zero emissions by 2030. According to the United Nations, the global community is still &ldquo;off track.&rdquo; With the current trajectory, global GHG emissions are projected to rise by 11% by 2030 in comparison to 2010 levels (UN, 2022). In this regard, and based on the Glasgow climate pact, state actors must revisit and ramp up their net-zero 2030 targets (UNFCCC, 2021).&nbsp;
At the core of avoiding a pessimistic climate scenario is rapid and aggressive decarbonisation of highly polluting sectors. This essentially means that states must enact aggressive policies to decouple the economy from fossil fuels.&nbsp; Using clean energy sources in all polluting sectors, thus also entails replacing machinery, technology, and potentially labour, to achieve this transition.&nbsp; The complexity in that regard is, on the one hand, balancing between short and long term climate objectives. On the other, it is balancing between immediate economic gains in a business as usual scenario, and financing green infrastructure.&nbsp; Green financing must also be inclusive of vulnerable groups, including not just those facing the risk of climate disasters, but also those expected to lose their sources of income as a negative multiplier of decarbonisation.&nbsp;
Currently, the rate of decarbonisation stands in the way of achieving a climate scenario of 2 - 1.5&deg;C. Based on PricewaterhouseCoopers&rsquo; (PwC) latest Net Zero Economy report, a 15.2% year-on-year rate of decarbonisation for the G20 must be achieved by 2030 if we are to achieve a 1.5&deg;C scenario (see Fig. 3.) (PwC, 2022). The rate of decarbonisation currently stands at 0.5%; which is miles off course (PwC, 2022).&nbsp;
It is equally important that non-state actors (e.g. transnational corporations, manufacturers, financial institutions, etc.) commit to their net zero pledges. Driven primarily by profit accumulation, the global community must enforce a zero tolerance policy towards greenwashing and manipulation. The UN High-Level Expert Group on the Net Zero Emissions Commitment of Non-State Actors has put in place a set of recommendations for non-state actors to ensure actual commitment to net zero pledges. These include avoiding offsetting carbon emissions with &ldquo;cheap&rdquo; carbon credits, and halting investments in fossil fuels altogether.&nbsp;
<img src="https://api-aps.aucegypt.edu/uploads/tinymce/1671699564image333.png" alt="" width="977" height="672"> The core challenge of this endeavour is to collectively design a decarbonised socioeconomic system that is financially and socially rewarding for all stakeholders involved; a complex issue that is yet to be unravelled.&nbsp;
<h3> Governance mechanisms for managing complex emergencies:</h3>
How do we govern the transition to global net-zero carbon emissions given the extensive interdependencies of fossil fuels and the modern anthropogenic way of life? How, and who can change the status quo when it comes to global geopolitical, and state and non-state interests? This is perhaps the missing piece of the climate dilemma.
Major events induce major changes. For example, the United Nations was created in response to the unprecedented scale of destruction of modern warfare witnessed in the Second World War (WWII). Far from perfect, its primary objective is governing, to an extent, war and peace (Laski, 1947). Similar to WWII in that regard, the climate crisis is one that carries an unprecedented and an unpredictable scale of loss and destruction.&nbsp;
The current governance mechanisms designed to achieve net zero carbon emissions are not delivering results and depend mostly on the &ldquo;willingness&rdquo; of state and non-state actors to follow through with their pledges. Further, there is a lack of legally binding measures and controls to enable the fulfilment of&nbsp; these commitments. This paradox is referred to as a &ldquo;problem of collective action&rdquo; (Holzinger, 2003); where a matrix of stakeholders fails to collectively deliver on a public good because it is easier for some parties to free ride in anticipation of other&rsquo;s efforts (Wolf, 2007). Since it is left to the willingness of multiple parties, with often conflicting sovereign agendas, climate action can easily be pushed down the parties&rsquo; list of priorities based on local and global socioeconomic fluctuations.&nbsp;
In light of the shortcomings of the current global climate governance system, a reformed mechanism must be on the agenda of all COPs going forward.&nbsp; This mechanism should not only focus on the coordination and cooperation dimensions between parties, but also on creating a system of accountability, subject to penalties in cases of non-compliance. This should be complemented with binding national policies that are independent of political leadership. This model must apply a participatory approach to climate action planning to ensure that it is shielded from local political instability and leadership change (Roesch, Nobre, &amp; Curtin, 2020). This will ensure that this global governance framework is grounded, receiving its legitimacy from the people instead of powerful actors.&nbsp;&nbsp;
This inter-linked system of accountability can be formulated through adopting national level climate action plans that are synced, regulated and monitored on the international level through the UNFCCC as the main governing body. This can be a major milestone in terms of globally governing the climate crisis (see the European Climate Law as an example). This proposed system balances between a bottom-up and a top-down approach to climate action planning, ensuring that national level policies are representative of local constituents, and in sync with global climate efforts.&nbsp;
So far, there have been no negotiations to collectively design a system of global climate governance. In terms of accountability, while the Loss and Damage fund is one of the achievements of COP27, however developed countries are still resisting the notion due to fears of future legal obligations for reparations (Ramirez, 2022).&nbsp;
A participatory approach is integral to ensure the formulation of a tailored governance framework suited to all parties. No doubt it will be exceptionally challenging to onboard the entire spectrum of involved parties, but the climate crisis has created a momentum of scientific and business innovation that can kickstart the design of policies and governance systems that address contemporary crises.&nbsp; 
<hr>
References:&nbsp;
IPCC (2021). Climate change widespread, rapid, and intensifying. IPCC News. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/">https://www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/</a>
US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (2015). Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Data. <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data">https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data</a>.&nbsp;
Subyani, A.M., Hajjar, A.F. (2016).&nbsp; Rainfall analysis in the contest of climate change for Jeddah area, Western Saudi Arabia. Arab J Geosci 9, 122 (2016). <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2102-2">https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-015-2102-2</a>.&nbsp;
Faouzi Ameur (2016). Floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Unusual phenomenon &amp; huge losses. What prognoses. ES3 web of conferences 7, 04019. FLOODrisk 2016- European Conference on Flood Risk Management. DOI:10.1051/E3sconf/20160704019. <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9ab5/711076e40f72f59e9404b19fb449375d8d43.pdf?_ga=2.59116973.1824360877.1668453688-1354957836.1668453688">https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/9ab5/711076e40f72f59e9404b19fb449375d8d43.pdf?_ga=2.59116973.1824360877.1668453688-1354957836.1668453688</a>
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2015). Paris Agreement. United Nations. ​​<a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf">https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf</a>
Jocelyn Timperley (2021). The broken $100-billion promise of climate finance-and how to fix it. Nature Journal News Article. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3">https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02846-3</a>
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) (2022). World military expenditure passes $2 trillion for first time. SIPRI. <a href="https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time">https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2022/world-military-expenditure-passes-2-trillion-first-time</a>
Madeline Stone (2021). 5 possible climate futures-from the optimistic to the strange. Planet Possible, National geographic. <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/5-possible-climate-futures-from-the-optimistic-to-the-strange">https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/article/5-possible-climate-futures-from-the-optimistic-to-the-strange</a>
Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser and Pablo Rosado (2020) - "CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: '<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions">https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions</a>' [Online Resource]&nbsp;
Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser and Pablo Rosado (2022) - "Energy". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: '<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/energy">https://ourworldindata.org/energy</a>' [Online Resource]
Centre for International Environmental Law (CIEL) (2017). Fueling Plastics: Fossils, Plastics, &amp; Petrochemical Feedstocks. CIEL, Washington DC. <a href="https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Fueling-Plastics-Fossils-Plastics-Petrochemical-Feedstocks.pdf">https://www.ciel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Fueling-Plastics-Fossils-Plastics-Petrochemical-Feedstocks.pdf</a>
Deloitte (2022). 2023 Oil &amp; gas Industry Outlook. Deloitte US. <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/oil-and-gas-industry-outlook.html">https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/energy-and-resources/articles/oil-and-gas-industry-outlook.html</a>
Saul Griffith, Sam Calisch and Laura Fraser (2020). The Rewiring America Handbook. Chapter <a href="https://www.rewiringamerica.org/policy/rewiring-america-handbook">https://www.rewiringamerica.org/policy/rewiring-america-handbook</a>

آراء

Commentaries

انتقال عادل

Read Also