<h3>Introduction</h3>
The world is currently adopting policies and laws to adapt to and mitigate climate change, especially in light of ongoing wars and the energy crisis. Oil prices are on the rise, making absolute dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation and transportation unfeasible in both the short and long term. Countries must adopt legislation and regulations to shift to renewable energy to ease the burden of energy subsidies. This transition will reduce countries&rsquo; carbon footprint, and will also secure the self-sufficiency of countries towards further independence and sovereignty.
Whether we like it or not, the transition is happening, sometimes rapidly due to pressure on oil prices, and other times more slowly due to falling prices. But the fact is that countries are paying millions in fuel subsidies. Direct global subsidies to the energy sector&mdash;including fossil fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear energy&mdash;were estimated at no less than USD634 billion in 2017. Total fossil fuel subsidies in many countries are overwhelmingly subsidies for petroleum products (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2020). In the Arab region, successive governments have tried to gradually lift subsidies on fossil fuels to reduce pressure on budgets and alleviate their economic burden. However, this has led to severe price hikes in countries that do not possess food or water sovereignty, generating political unrest and popular demonstrations in turn. When demanding the removal of energy subsidies, we must also demand a fair energy transition and comprehensive climate change solutions that include social, cultural, economic, and health solutions. What does this mean?
<h3>Climate Justice</h3>
We are not on the cusp of a climate catastrophe, but in the midst of one. Countries are recording the highest temperatures in human history, crops are failing, sea levels are rising, and thousands of people around the world are dying due to severe weather. But the real catastrophe underway is that current human activities&nbsp; will push the atmosphere past a threshold that it has not seen for millions of years.&nbsp;
The disaster is that atmospheric carbon exceeds 421 parts per million (ppm). There is now 50% more CO2 trapped in the atmosphere than in the pre-industrial period. To clarify, prior to the Industrial Revolution in the late 19th century, carbon levels were 280 ppm, and the safe upper limit for human beings is 350 ppm. It is estimated that humanity has produced an estimated 1.5 trillion tons of carbon dioxide pollution since the Industrial Revolution, much of which will continue to warm the atmosphere for thousands of years to come (Global Monitoring Laboratory, 2022).
Severe weather associated with climate change will become common in all seasons, not just summer or winter, and once-in-a-decade extreme weather events will occur every year. Floods and torrential rains on one hand, and fires and drought on the other hand, will become frequent occurrences. Just because a summer or winter passes without severe weather does not mean that the climate is improving; we are talking about climate, measured as an average over many years, not a daily or weekly weather forecast. Some scenarios anticipate the number of unusually hot days with uncomfortably high temperatures to increase annually from four to 62 days in Amman (Jordan), eight to 90 in Baghdad (Iraq), and one to 71 in Damascus (Syria). Forecasts indicate that Beirut, Lebanon and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia will experience the sharpest temperature increases, with the number of hot days rising to 126 and 132 days a year respectively (World Bank, 2012).&nbsp;
What is different today is that we have reached a tipping point: a threshold which, if crossed, leads to major changes, most of them irreversible (such as the melting of permafrost and glaciers that is currently underway, and which will consequently&nbsp; lead to a rise in sea levels, and thus&nbsp; floods, famine, and more). Unfortunately, even if we solved the problem today, some of these consequences would persist. Yet, we can still save the next generation.
&nbsp;The Sixth Climate Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms that the last decade has been hotter than any decade in the past 125,000 years, and expects that global warming will exceed 1.5 &deg;C above pre-industrial levels in less than two decades because of our irresponsible activities. The report details several possible scenarios, some of which assume the warming of 5 &deg;C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. A very ambitious projection sees us reaching +1.6 &deg;C and then later falling to +1.5 &deg;C. All the scenarios foresee the continued melting of the Arctic ice cap before 2050, which means more frequent floods and hurricanes, rising seas, and other natural disasters that will become annual phenomena.
&nbsp;Climate change is inherently unfair, as rich classes and the developed countries most responsible for it possess the means to adapt to it. While Arab countries today will certainly cause future climate change, they are not responsible for the historical climate change caused by industrialized countries. Yet,&nbsp; the repercussions of climate change will not wait for the State&acute;s contributions which are limited in scope on a national level, nor for a new agreement, or a multilateral. The repercussions of climate change will devastate all countries equally; the only difference being how states will cope.
&nbsp;When talking about climate justice in a region whose emissions do not exceed 5% of global emissions (Brussels International Center, 2022), it may seem as if the solution is up to developed countries or states of the Global North. But the historic Paris Agreement affirmed that all countries have an obligation to reduce carbon emissions and limit the rise in global temperature to 1.5 &deg;C above pre-industrial levels. This was reaffirmed by the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Glasgow last year.
<h3>Recommendations</h3>
Clear, Pragmatic, Serious Plans
Countries in the region renewed their locally defined commitments after the last COP. These include Jordan, Qatar, Tunisia, and Morocco (a world leader in renewable energy). Other countries went further: Lebanon and the UAE pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 and Saudi Arabia by 2060. Along with these commitments, however, there must be a clear plan to offset losses incurred from both climate change and the transition to carbon neutrality. This is not the case in the pledges made by Arab countries. The fossil fuel economy is doomed and fragile; to provide for a successful economy after the fossil fuel era, contributions and plans must be realistic and serious in countries that receive sunlight throughout the year.
Hosting the COP in Egypt this year, and in the UAE next year offers a golden opportunity to raise the level of ambition, globally and regionally, and to include vulnerable communities, trade unions, and fossil fuel companies and their employees in participatory plans for climate solutions that can take the region beyond the fossil fuel economy.
The Arab region has hosted the COP three times in the last decades;twice in Morocco and once in Qatar. Today, the Arab group must speak in one voice and demand that other states, specifically historical emitters, meet their financial&nbsp; conditions pledges. As countries, we must take the initiative and engage in regional cooperation in energy, agriculture, water, and other sectors vulnerable to climate change.
Domestic Legislation Reflective of the Paris Agreement and State Commitments
Arab states should pursue genuine measures and policies and enact clear legislation to support climate change solutions. In Jordan, for example, many laws, regulations, and directives have been issued, such as Law 13/2012 on renewable energy and energy rationalization (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, 2012.This law regulates all matters related to renewable energy, and encourages reliance on renewable energy systems to generate electricity, investment and competition in the sector, as well as the production and manufacturing of inputs and any equipment that helps to rationalize energy generally. However,&nbsp; implementation of the law is limited due to continuous changes in the tariff for electricity generation from renewable energy, hence turning the renewable energy sector into a repulsive one for investors due to the complexity of procedures.
Regarding the use of electricity generated by renewables, the government of Jordan has excluded the two generators using renewable energy from the new government subsidies, which may turn off investors and anyone else who intends to use this type of energy. Jordan should instead incentivize current users&mdash;already there were 2.05 million residential and government subscribers in 2020&mdash;and include them in subsidy coverage (Zidan, 2022). It is also important to make flexible, but nevertheless stable law in order to ensure investor&rsquo;s interests. and not to change continuously for investors.
Gender-sensitive Climate Change Solutions
Looking at locally defined contributions since 2016, one finds that the gender dimension of climate change is completely absent, and a quick review shows that most Arab countries have not prioritized gender. When periodically reviewing their contributions, governments should integrate a gender analysis into adaptation and mitigation plans. In doing so, they should include the most vulnerable groups, such as women, youth, and poor communities, in review and consultations to make their plans more impactful. The transition must be a popular transition that takes into account the most vulnerable communities, involves them in solutions, and solicits their opinion of the plans in a holistic manner, in order to ensure a just transition. We cannot continue to pursue climate solutions that are oblivious&nbsp; to social justice and are not participatory.&nbsp;
Transportation Sector
The&nbsp; transport sector isa significant source of emissions. The Arab world is witnessing a marked rise in digitization and growing reliance on electricity and batteries in public transit (International Association of Public Transport, 2019).. The UAE has one of the longest, fully automated metro systems in the world, and Dubai is pursuing strategic plans to connect the city and encourage shared, sustainable transit. Through visions and strategies, several countries in the region are adopting ambitious plans for sustainable public transit, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco. Other Arab states must follow suit and take the same approach to solutions.
Finally, we must realize that whether our focus is on farmers in the Nile Delta, fishermen in Oman, children in Saudi Arabia, or students in Morocco; they are all being affected and must be made aware and involved in decision-making. Only when all social classes are involved in decision-making, can we truly say that we are on the path to climate justice.
<hr>
References
<ul>
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Brussels International Center. (2022). Climate change in the MENA: Shifting to a new paradigm.&nbsp;
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Global Monitoring Laboratory (2022). Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.&nbsp;
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/">https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/</a>&nbsp;
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International Association of Public Transport. (2019). MENA transport report 2019.
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International Renewable Energy Agency. (2020). Energy subsidies: Evolution in the global energy transformation to 2050. <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Apr/Energy-Subsidies-2020">https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Apr/Energy-Subsidies-2020</a>&nbsp;
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Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. (2012). Renewable energy and energy efficiency law.&nbsp;
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World Bank. (2012). Turn down the heat: Why a 4&deg;C warmer world must be avoided. <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/865571468149107611/Turn-down-the-heat-why-a-4-C-warmer-world-must-be-avoided">http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/865571468149107611/Turn-down-the-heat-why-a-4-C-warmer-world-must-be-avoided</a>
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Zidan, Reham. (2022). Experts: Excluding &ldquo;renewable energy&rdquo; users from subsidizing electricity is a collective punishment (خبراء: استثناء مستخدمي &ldquo;الطاقة المتجددة&rdquo; من دعم الكهرباء عقاب جماع). Al-Ghad. <a href="https://alghad.com/%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AB%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%AF%D9%85%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%AF%D8%AF/">https://alghad.com/%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AB%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%AF%D9%85%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%AC%D8%AF%D8%AF/</a>&nbsp;
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