<h3 dir="ltr">Introduction</h3>
The crisis of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is a true test of Egypt&rsquo;s ability to manage one of its most critical strategic issues: water security. Despite more than a decade of negotiations, political and technical efforts have not resulted in a binding legal agreement that would regulate the filling and operation of the dam. This paper proposes alternative tools to enhance Egypt&rsquo;s leverage. Going beyond political rhetoric, these tools can be used to build institutional, legal, and scientific frameworks that redefine the balance in the Nile Basin and link Egypt&rsquo;s water security to a broader network of regional and international interests. This paper addresses three key topics.
1. Reshaping the institutional structure&nbsp;
The lack of a comprehensive, effective regional framework has significantly hindered the resolution of the dispute over the GERD. The Nile Basin Initiative has not functioned as an institutional umbrella for negotiations due to the division among Nile Basin countries following the signing of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) and Egypt&rsquo;s suspension of its membership (Winter, 2023).
Given this, this paper proposes the creation of a neutral scientific platform to monitor Nile flows and assess the impact of dams using artificial intelligence (AI) and satellite imagery. The platform should be established as a standing technical committee under the African Union (AU) Peace and Security Council, pursuant to an official request submitted by Egypt to the council to support its negotiating position in an Africa-wide institutional framework.
The committee should undertake scientific tasks and include experts from the three countries involved (Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia), in addition to a major international power (the US, China, or the EU), which will act as an observer partner based on an official invitation from the AU. The aim of international participation is to exploit the advanced technological capabilities of these countries (in remote sensing, hydrological data analysis, and climate models) to enhance the accuracy of technical assessments and put political momentum behind the committee&rsquo;s work without compromising regional sovereignty.
The committee should submit periodic reports to the AU, the UN, and international financial institutions. Funding for any water projects with transboundary impacts&mdash;especially new dams or dams that have not undergone a coordinated regional evaluation&mdash;will be tied to the findings of these reports, as is the norm for international financial institutions, which typically do not support controversial projects or those established without a clear regional consensus, in order to avoid potential legal, political, or environmental risks. This would turn the committee into an effective international oversight instrument that deters unilateral action and boosts opportunities for consensual solutions.
Egypt could learn from successful international experiences&mdash;for example, the US and Canada&rsquo;s co-management of the waters of the Columbia River, which straddles the border between the two countries and has historically been the object of disputes over water sharing and hydropower generation. The two countries have developed an advanced joint system relying on AI and hydrological forecasting models to monitor river flows and manage dam operations, balancing electricity production with flood protection and fulfilling environmental and civil uses. The system provides real-time data to both parties via a joint technical institutional mechanism, which has helped to minimize technical disputes, increase transparency, and build mutual trust (US Army Corps of Engineers and Bonneville Power Administration, 2022).&nbsp;
2. Reshaping the legal framework
Upstream countries in the Nile Basin have divergent interests due to their distinct hydrological characteristics and political considerations (Awulachew et al., 2012). This presents Egypt with a strategic opportunity to reshape consensus within the basin. Through flexible bilateral alliances with states such as Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo&mdash;two countries that do not adopt a confrontational stance on the water issue&mdash;Cairo can crack the alliance of upstream countries that Ethiopia relies on to promote the CFA.
The growing security coordination between Egypt and Uganda (Al Arabiya English, 2021) and Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Gomaa, 2024) can be leveraged to strike a strategic bargain: enhanced security support in exchange for legal support for Egypt&rsquo;s position on its historical rights to the Nile waters. Namely, the two countries should join the Joint Technical Committee emanating from the 1959 Nile Waters Agreement, via an additional technical protocol that expands the committee&rsquo;s membership without amending the original text of the agreement.
Although the 1959 agreement does not explicitly provide for such an expansion, it does not prohibit it, and according to Article 39 of the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, treaties may be amended provided that the original text does not bar it. Since the Joint Technical Committee is an internal, bilateral implementing mechanism, an expansion of its membership would not constitute a substantive amendment and would not create new legal obligations for non-signatory states. Rather, it would be a flexible, coordinating step that keeps pace with regional shifts.
This measure would lay the legal foundation for a revival of the 1959 agreement in the Nile Basin itself,1 enhancing its functional legitimacy while also undermining the narrative promoting the CFA as a new umbrella for the &ldquo;majority.&rdquo; Only six of the 11 Nile Basin states have signed the CFA, calling into question its legal and political legitimacy (al-Mayani, 2024).
3. Development cooperation in water management as a diplomatic tool to support Egypt&rsquo;s position in the Nile Basin
Egypt is confronting a water gap of more than 20 billion m3 annually (Hassan, 2024) and is importing the equivalent of 33 billion m3 of water in food crops&mdash;what is known as &ldquo;virtual water&rdquo; (Hassanein, 2024). Agriculture alone consumes some 85% of Egypt&rsquo;s available water resources (Abd al-Halim, 2024).
This paper proposes the local adoption of the joint stock-company model as a framework for modernizing the irrigation system. Based on a partnership between the government, landowners, development partners, and agricultural technology companies, this initiative can be implemented incrementally within a sovereign legal framework at the governorate level, allowing for improved water-use efficiency, the expansion of highly productive agriculture, and the attraction of investment linked to the stability of Nile flows into Egypt.
Compared to traditional methods like flood irrigation, modern irrigation technology has cut water consumption by up to 50% in some cases, while also reducing fertilizer costs. In Arizona, one of the driest states in the US, the N-Drip irrigation system has improved water-use efficiency in major agricultural crops like cotton, potatoes, and soybeans. In the wake of its success, the system has spread to more than 17 countries, among them Australia, Vietnam, India, and Nigeria. These international experiences show that modern agricultural technology is not only a tool for rationalizing resources, but also a means of enhancing sustainability and improving the economic viability of agriculture (Asharq Business, 2021).
As a next step, Egypt could extend development cooperation by transferring this model to Nile Basin countries through the Egyptian Agency for Partnership for Development,2 affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is the vehicle best suited to export Egyptian agricultural and water expertise.
Egypt&rsquo;s role here is increasingly important given the structural gaps facing upstream countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo. These states possess abundant natural water but lack the technical and institutional infrastructure necessary for efficient water management (World Bank, 2023). Egypt could act as a partner, transferring its technical expertise in irrigation and sustainable agriculture, thus enabling these countries to make optimal use of their resources without harming the interests of downstream countries.
<h3 dir="ltr" style="text-align: justify;">Policy lessons</h3>
The GERD crisis reflects the interplay between a weak legal framework, a fragmented regional institutional structure, and the lack of binding implementing mechanisms, all of which have weakened the effectiveness of Egypt&rsquo;s negotiating tools. To achieve a qualitative shift, this paper proposes establishing a neutral scientific platform, strengthening relations with Nile Basin countries, and modernizing traditional irrigation systems.
By integrating these approaches, Egypt strengthens its position as a rational actor capable of redrawing the rules of water cooperation in the Nile Basin, balancing historical rights with future interests.
<hr>
1 The Nile Waters Agreement of 1959 is a bilateral treaty signed by Egypt and Sudan with the aim of distributing shares of Nile waters between the two countries. The agreement gives Egypt 55.5 billion m3 of water annually and Sudan 18.5 billion m3. The agreement does not involve other upstream countries (Salman, 2013).
2 The EAPD is the development arm of the Foreign Ministry, established in 2014 to strengthen cooperation with African states, especially in the fields of agriculture, irrigation, and health. It is a key tool for the transfer of Egyptian expertise and the building of partnerships to support sustainable development goals and reinforce South-South cooperation. The agency oversees training programs and development initiatives that meet the needs of neighboring African states, which enhances the link between Egypt&rsquo;s water security and regional stability and demonstrates its commitment to equitable partnership with Nile Basin countries (Foreign Ministry, n. d.).
<hr>
References
Abd al-Halim, A. (2024). Moving agriculture toward modern irrigation techniques in rationalizing irrigation water use in the Beheira governorate (Suluk al-zira&lsquo; nahw taqniyat al-rayy al-haditha fi tarshid istikhdam miyah al-rayy bi-muhafazat al-Buhayra). Journal of Advanced Agricultural Research, 29(4), 756&ndash;771. [in Arabic]
Asharq Business (2021). A small plastic piece helps to rationalize use of irrigation water (Qit&lsquo;a blastikiya saghira tusa&lsquo;id &lsquo;ala tarshid istikhdam miyah al-rayy). <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/GyFcV">https://linksshortcut.com/GyFcV</a> [in Arabic]&nbsp;
Awulachew, S., Smakhtin, V., Molden, D., &amp; Peden, D. (2012). The Nile River Basin: Water, agriculture, governance and livelihoods. Routledge.
Gomaa, A. (2024). Foreign minister meets with Egyptian police squadron participating in peacekeeping mission in Democratic Congo (Wazir al-kharijiya yaltaqi ma&lsquo; katibat al-shurta al-Misriya al-musharika fi mahamm hifz al-salam bi-l-Kunghu al-Dimuqratiya). Youm7. <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/OTkwF">https://linksshortcut.com/OTkwF</a> [in Arabic]&nbsp;
Hassan, S. (2024). How does Egypt cover its water deficit? (Kayf tughatti Misr fajwataha al-ma&rsquo;iya?). Economy Plus. <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/upyNN">https://linksshortcut.com/upyNN</a> [in Arabic]
Hassanein, M. (2024). Egypt reviews its plan to make up water deficit estimated at 54 billion m3 (Misr tasta&lsquo;rad khittataha li-ta&lsquo;wid &lsquo;ajz ma&rsquo;i yuqaddar bi-54 milyar mitr muka&lsquo;&lsquo;ab). Asharq al-Awsat. <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/qlcxA">https://linksshortcut.com/qlcxA</a> [in Arabic]
Al-Mayani, H. (2024). Who has the upper hand over the Nile River after the Entebbe Agreement? (Man lahu al-yad al-&lsquo;ulya &lsquo;ala nahr al-Nil ba&lsquo;d sarayan ittifaqiyat &lsquo;Antibi?). BBC Arabic. <a href="https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/c2dpk2e0w3do">https://www.bbc.com/arabic/articles/c2dpk2e0w3do</a> [in Arabic]
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Immigration. (n. d.). Egyptian Agency for Partnership for Development (al-Wikala al-Misriya li-l-Shiraka min ajl al-Tanmiya). <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/HdSCx">https://linksshortcut.com/HdSCx</a> [in Arabic]
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United States Army Corps of Engineers, &amp; Bonneville Power Administration. (2022). Columbia River system operations EIS. <a href="https://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/CRSO/">https://www.nwd.usace.army.mil/CRSO/</a>&nbsp;
Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Art. 39, opened for signature May 23, 1969, 1155 U.N.T.S. 331. <a href="https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%201155/volume-1155-i-18232-english.pdf">https://treaties.un.org/doc/publication/unts/volume%201155/volume-1155-i-18232-english.pdf</a>
Winter, E. (2023). Egyptian water security and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: Why Ethiopia has the upper hand. Jurist News.&nbsp; <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/oThES">https://linksshortcut.com/oThES</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;
World Bank. (2023). Supporting drinking water access: A key to progress in Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). <a href="https://linksshortcut.com/WFGfN">https://linksshortcut.com/WFGfN</a>&nbsp;

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