<h3>Background: Paris Agreement, NDCs, and Stronger Ambitions </h3>
The adoption of the Paris Agreement (PA) in 2015 was a milestone in the history of international climate negotiations. As part of the agreement, countries are mandated to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as a landmark adoption of the agreement and central component of its implementation (Pauw et al., 2018). NDC reflects the country's ambition to limit national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and build resilience to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Parties are requested to update their NDCs every five years and increase their ambitions with every cycle to limit global warming&nbsp;to below 2 &deg;C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 &deg;C above pre-industrial levels (UNFCCC, 2015). Recent research outputs emphasized that if countries' ambitions are not increased before 2030, global temperature increase can no longer be limited to 1.5&deg;C above pre-industrial levels (UNEP,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2020.1722607">2018</a>). Recognizing the urgency of greater ambitions, Glasgow Climate Pact encouraged countries to submit stronger 2030 emissions reduction targets to move steadily toward achieving the global aim (UNFCCC, 2021). Yet, the country's ambition alone is not enough; NDCs should be underpinned with action plans and measures to assure their transparency and implementability (Pauw et al., 2018).
<h3>NDC Assessment Method</h3>
The first round of submitted NDCs was highly incoherent, unclear, and broadly descriptive, therefore, guidance for communicating NDCs was adopted at the climate change conference in Katowice in 2018,which instituted the 'Information to facilitate Clarity, Transparency and Understanding of NDCs' (ICTU) (UNFCCC, 2018b, Decision 4/CMA.1). Parties also adopted guidelines for the transparency framework outlining the information necessary to track progress in implementing NDCs (UNFCCC, 2018a, decision 18/CMA.1). In conjunction with the second round of submissions in 2020, many assessment instruments evolved to evaluate submitted NDCs, such as climate action and climate watch trackers. This article follows a systematic analysis methodology developed by New Climate Institute in collaboration with &Ouml;ko-institute e.V. (institute for applied ecology) in Germany (Umwelt Bundesamt, 2021). It assesses Egypt's NDCs along four critical elements that are crucial for the success of the NDC: Mitigation ambition level, comprehensiveness, implementation plan, and transparency.
1. Mitigation Ambition Level 
While Egypt's intended NDC did not encompass an emissions mitigation target at all, the new 2030 target is a relative improvement. The new submission identified quantified GHG emission reduction targets below Business As Usual BAU-GHG Emissions by 2030 for three sectors (i.e., Electricity generation, transmission and distribution, Oil and Gas, and transport, by 33%, 65%, and 7%, respectively, using 2015 as a reference year). The updated NDC also included a list of descriptive measures to mitigate emissions from other sectors. However, due to the lack of transparency, neither tracking the progress of the total emission mitigation nor judging the ambition level is possible. The updated NDC does not elucidate how much the total projected GHG emission reduction or the total GHG emission of Egypt will be in 2030 compared to the reference year of 2015 (325,515 GgCO2e) (Egyptian Government, 2018). Climate Action Tracker estimated that Egypt would need to commit to reducing its emissions by approximately 25% by 2030 compared to today's level (CilmateActionTracker, 2022). Moreover, Egypt does not have a national net-zero target to be achieved by 2050 or unconditionally identified emission reduction and mitigation targets. In sum, the NDC's mitigation ambition level component is underdeveloped&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
2. Comprehensiveness
Comprehensiveness refers to the scope of the NDC in terms of coverage of gas emissions, sectors, and adaptation. While the intended NDC included none of the seven gases to be reported under the Paris Agreement, the updated NDC incorporated the three types that are relevant for developing countries<a href="applewebdata://40C8EC20-50EF-4E90-B940-9BEEA39BA0AE#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1">[1]</a>, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). The adaptation actions are also more comprehensive and concrete with quantified targets than what was proposed in the intended NDC. Regarding sectoral coverage, both NDCs covered a wide range of sectors.
It is worth noting that the updated NDC explained why Egypt focuses its mitigation actions on three sectors(i.e., Electricity generation, transmission and distribution, Oil and Gas, and transport), as they account for 43 % of the total emission (Egypt NDC, 2022). However, 57% of the total GHG emission remains opaque and untraceable. The new NDC cited, "All Major sources of GHG emissions in the GHG inventory have already been covered in this NDC update" (p.37). However, it did not explain why mitigation actions did not cover critical sectors such as agriculture and land use. The agricultural sector is known as the second source of GHG emissions after energy, primarily associated with human activities such as burning fossil fuels, livestock, land use changes, fertilization, etc. (OurWorldinData, 2019). In sum, the NDC's comprehensiveness component of the NDC is partially fulfilled.
3. Implementation Plan 
The purpose of NDCs is to commit Parties to national action on climate. Therefore, NDCs must be rooted in national policy-making to ensure successful implementation. In this line, it is unclear whether Egypt's updated NDC or the updated mitigation targets are enshrined in national law. In addition, no implementation or action plans are presented in the NDCs despite mentioning that all planned measures are aligned with long-term national strategies. Although the updated NDC stated that the NDC preparation followed a participatory approach, no description of the preparation processes is included. Finally, implementing adaptation and mitigation actions is contingent on receiving technological and financial support from international actors. In sum, the implementability component is the weakest part of the updated NDC and iswholly unfulfilled.
4. Transparency&nbsp;
Transparency is evaluated in terms of: (a) the availability of information to estimate the resulting emission of targets; (b) the clarity of the methodological approach following the ICTU guideline; (c) the transparency of the accounting modalities; and; (d) the explanation of why the target is a fair contribution towards the global goal. While all items were nonexistent in the intended NDC, they have been marginally noted in the updated NDC. There is a lack of transparency in disclosing the information required to estimate the resulting emission of the targets, in addition to unclear planning processes and no quantitative explanation regarding the fairness of Egypt's contribution. The NDC's transparency component is partially fulfilled.
<h3>Proposed Policies for an Enhanced Egyptian NDC &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</h3>
Egypt is the World's 28th largest GHG emitter, with a small share of 0.71% of the global emission (ClimateWatch, 2019). However, its vulnerability to climate change hazards is critical (Egypt's NDCs 2015 and 2022). This fact overshadowed the preparation of the NDC, envisaging more comprehensive adaptation measures than focusing on emission mitigation actions. Egypt's current policies would result in emissions reductions well below its target but only in line with 3&deg;C warming (CilmateActionTracker, 2022). To improve Egypt's resilience to climate change impacts, the following measures are recommended:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<h3>&nbsp;GHG Emission Mitigation </h3>
<ol style="font-weight: 400;">
<li style="text-align: justify;">Total GHG emission mitigation targets should be transparently defined and comparable to the base years.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Egypt should take up a leading role in adopting a net-zero target and encourage other Parties to act accordingly.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">Egypt should emphasize the imperativeness of creating an emerging international carbon market at the upcoming COP27.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">&nbsp;Egypt's use of low carbon natural gas in cars and villages is practical as a bridging strategy and a component of Just-Transition. However, it risks locking Egypt in a long carbon pathway, and an exit strategy should thus be created.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">The inclusion and exclusion of any GHG emission sources should be explicitly explained. &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ol>
<h3>Strengthening Implementability</h3>
&nbsp;Up to now, the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures in Egypt is conditional on receiving foreign financial and technological support. However, the country's vulnerability requires the following:
<ol style="font-weight: 400;">
<li style="text-align: justify;">A Climate Finance Working Group should be formed to develop a climate finance strategy to align financial flows with the Egyptian climate action and to strengthen the country's Article 6 position, which allows countries to work cooperatively to achieve their mission reduction targets, creating the basis for trading GHG emission reductions in global carbon markets using carbon credit mechanisms (The World Bank, 2022).&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">As Egypt was the first country to issue sovereign green bonds in the Middle East and North African region as a green financing mechanism (The World Bank, 2022), more instruments should follow, such as green loans, sustainability-linked loans, sustainability bonds, and social bonds.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">An open innovation ecosystem approach should be adopted to fill the technological and technical gaps. The fast- track to fill technical and technology gaps includes opening the process up and establishing collaborations with the private sector\ and specialized scientific research institutes.</li>
<li style="text-align: justify;">A climate change law should be enacted to increase harmony between involved parties and ensure the enforcement of planned targets and actions.</li>
</ol>
<h3>Awareness and Cultural Revolution </h3>
The updated NDC is more centralized around measures led by the government on the national or sectoral level. However, nothing is mentioned about changing individual behavior or increasing awareness of the problem among citizens, consumers, producers, etc. (Latif, 2022). In order to address this inconsistency, the government should work with and support non-governmental organizations. Changing the culture of consumption and the ethics of using natural resources should be a daily topic in mass media and cultural institutions across the country.
<hr>
Reference&nbsp;
Climate Action Tracker (2022). Countries: Egypt-Targets. Available at:&nbsp; <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/egypt/targets/">https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/egypt/targets/</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].&nbsp; 
Climate Watch (2019). Countries: Egypt. Available at:&nbsp; <a href="https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/EGY?end_year=2019&amp;start_year=1990">https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/EGY?end_year=2019&amp;start_year=1990</a>[Accessed on 18.09.2022].
Egyptian Government (2015). Egyptian Intended NDC. Available at: <a href="https://leap.unep.org/countries/eg/national-legislation/intended-nationally-determined-contributions-indcs-egypt">https://leap.unep.org/countries/eg/national-legislation/intended-nationally-determined-contributions-indcs-egypt</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].
Egyptian Government (2018). Egypt's first Biannual Update Report BAR to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Cairo. Available at: <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/BUR%20Egypt%20EN.pdf">https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/BUR%20Egypt%20EN.pdf</a>. [Accessed on 18.09.2022].
Egyptian Government (2022). Egypt's first updated NDCs. Available at: <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-07/Egypt%20Updated%20NDC.pdf.pdf">https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-07/Egypt%20Updated%20NDC.pdf.pdf</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].
Latif, M. (2022). Countdown Unsere Zeit läuft ab - was wir der Klimakatastrophe noch entgegensetzen können. Verlag Herder.
Our World in Data (2019). Greenhouse gas emissions by sector, Egypt, 2019. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ghg-emissions-by-sector?time=latest&amp;country=~EGY [accessed on 18.09.2022]
Pauw, W. P., Klein, R. J. T., Mbeva, K., Dzebo, A., Cassanmagnago, D., &amp; Rudloff, A. (2018). Beyond headline mitigation
numbers: we need more transparent and comparable NDCs to achieve the Paris Agreement on climate change. Climatic 
Change, 147(1&ndash;2), 23&ndash;29. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-017-2122-X">https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-017-2122-X</a>.
The World Bank (2022). Supporting Egypt's Inaugural Green Bond Issuance. Available at:&nbsp;<a href="https://bit.ly/3Sd1Pbs">https://bit.ly/3Sd1Pbs</a> [Accessed on 21.09.2022].
The World Bank (2022). What You Need to Know About Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. Available at: <a href="https://bit.ly/3C1Xnqw">https://bit.ly/3C1Xnqw</a> [accessed 22.09.2022]
Umwelt Bundesamt (2021).&nbsp; NDC Design Systematic analysis. Climate Change 52/2021. German Environment Agency. Berlin. Available at: <a href="https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/NDC-Design">https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/NDC-Design</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].
UNEP (2018). Emissions Gap Report 2018. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme. Available at: <a href="https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018">https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].
UNFCCC (2015). Paris Agreement- Decision 1/CP.21: Adoption of the Paris Agreement. Paris. Available at: <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf">https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].
UNFCCC (2018a) &lsquo;Decision 18/CMA.1: Modalities, procedures and guidelines for the transparency framework for action and support referred to in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement. Source of information: FCCC/PA/CMA/2018/3/Add.2, p.13.' Available at: https://unfccc.int/documents/193408.
UNFCCC (2018b) Decision 4/CMA.1 Further guidance in relation to the mitigation section of decision 1/CP.21. Available at: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2018_3_add1_advance.pdf.
UNFCCC (2021). Conference of Parties- Draft decision -/CMA.3: Glasgow Climate Pact. Glasgow. Available at: <a href="https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf">https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_L16_adv.pdf</a> [accessed on 18.09.2022].
<a href="applewebdata://40C8EC20-50EF-4E90-B940-9BEEA39BA0AE#_ftnref1" name="_ftn1">[1]</a> Relevant GHGs here are defined for developing countries as: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O). &nbsp;

آراء

Commentaries

انتقال عادل

Read Also